Spanish Bank Capital Shortfall As "Good" As Expected: Live Press Conference Webcast

Spanish stress test results are out. Surprise - Oliver Wyman's audit finds that Spanish banks have an approximate EUR60bn shortfall - as expected - see below for pass/fails.

  • *SPAIN SAYS 7 BANKS HAVE NO CAPITAL NEEDS       :SAN SM, BBVA SM
  • *SPAIN STRESS TESTS SHOW CAPITAL SHORTFALL OF EU59.3 BLN :SAN SM
  • *SPAIN BANKS HAVE EU53.7 B CAPITAL SHORTFALL AFTER TAX IMPACT
  • *BANKIA STRESS TEST SHORTFALL AFTER TAX EFFECT IS EU24.74 BLN
  • *SANTANDER, BBVA, CAIXABANK, KUTXA PASS STRESS TEST      :SAN SM
  • *SABADELL, BANKINTER, UNICAJA PASS STRESS TEST  :SAN SM, BBVA SM

Capital needs: Bankia: €24.7; Catalunya Caixa: 10.8; Novagalicia 7.2; Banco de Valencia: 3.5; Banco Popular 3.2; Banco Mare Nostrum: 2.2

Winners:

  • *SANTANDER, BBVA, CAIXABANK, KUTXA PASS STRESS TEST      :SAN SM
  • *SABADELL, BANKINTER, UNICAJA PASS STRESS TEST  :SAN SM, BBVA SM

Losers, aka nationalized banks:

  • *NCG BANCO STRESS TEST SHORTFALL AFTER TAX EFFECT EU7.18 BLN
  • *IBERCAJA, CAJA3, LIBERBANK STRESS TEST SHORTFALL IS EU2.1 BLN
  • *BANCO DE VALENCIA STRESS TEST SHORTFALL IS EU3.5 BLN    :SAN SM
  • *BANKIA STRESS TEST SHORTFALL AFTER TAX EFFECT IS EU24.74 BLN

The discrete needs of the shortfall banks are as follows:

Bankia: 24.7;

Catalunya Caixa:10.8;

Novagalicia 7.2;

Banco de Valencia: 3.5;

Banco Popular 3.2;

Banco Mare Nostrum: 2.2

 

Based on these stunning assumptions!!!!

Bwuahahahah!!!!

  • IBEX: -0.4% next year? -5% worst case?
  • Home Prices: -2.8% next year? -4.5% worst case!!!!
  • Unemployment: 23.5% in 2013 - worst case 26.8%!!!!!
  • EURUSD: 1.33?

Finally, here is why all of the numbers above are absolutely meaningless. As a reminder in August, the ECB provided Spanish banks with €412 billion in funding. That is 7 times as much as the adverse case liquidity needs.

In other words, the total ECB funding and liquidity needs from the Stress Test is €472 billion. This is 50% of Spanish GDP.

Bottom line: the entire Spanish banking system is broke.

Live Press Conference (click image - in Spanish):

 

Wyman report which nobody will believe:

 

And numeric summary of goalseeked gibberish: