Last night, in a spontaneous moment of clarity, the ZH brain trust tweeted the following:
Tomorrow on deck are revenue misses from CAT, TXN, FCX, BTU and others— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 22, 2012
So far we had our first "others" when Hasbro missed the topline, printing revenues of $1.35 billion vs expectations of $1.38 billion, but more importantly here comes CAT, with a whopper of a topline miss, worse than even the recent preannouncements could predict.
- CAT REVENUES $16.45 BILLION, EXP. $16.74 BILLION, EPS$ 2.54, EXP. $2.22
- CAT SEES 2012 EPS $9.00-$9.25, PREVIOUSLY HAD SEEN $9.60
- CAT SEES 2012 REVENUES OF $66 BILLION, PREVIOUSLY HAD SEEN $68-70 BILLION
The reasons for the collapse in near-term hope:
The decline in the sales and revenues outlook reflects global economic conditions that are weaker than we had previously expected. In addition, Cat dealers have lowered order rates well below end-user demand to reduce their inventories. Production across much of the company has been lowered, resulting in temporary shutdowns and layoffs. Lower production will continue until inventories and dealer order rates move back in line with dealer deliveries to end users. The reduction in the profit outlook is in line with the lower sales and revenues outlook, partially offset by the gain on the sale of a majority interest in our third party logistics business.
"As we've moved through the year, we've seen continued economic weakening and uncertainty. It's definitely impacting our business with dealers intending to lower inventories and mining customers delaying some projects and reducing orders," Oberhelman said. "We're focused on being very nimble and taking actions to respond to the current environment while at the same time keeping our 2015 goals and expectations in mind. It requires a pragmatic and steady approach as we balance our actions in the short term with what we need to do to be prepared for better growth when the world economy improves," Oberhelman added.
Then looking at 2013 the firm is full of hopium that sooner or later China will join the global ease fest and push up revenues. Which is why it is purposefully vague:
- SEES FY 2013 SALES UP IN SAME RANGE AS 2012: UP 5% - DOWN 5%
Even so, the company is hardly stoked about the future:
From an economic standpoint, we are expecting slightly better world growth in 2013 with modest improvement in the United States, China and most of the developing world, but continuing difficulty in Europe. Based on our economic forecast, our preliminary outlook for 2013 is for sales and revenues to be about the same as 2012 in a range of up 5 percent to down 5 percent.
"We are taking a pragmatic view of 2013—we're not expecting rapid growth, and we're not predicting a global recession. At this point, we expect 2013 sales will be similar overall to 2012, but with a slightly weaker first half and a slightly better second half. While machine deliveries to end users have continued to hold up, our sales will probably remain relatively weak early in 2013 as dealers are likely to continue reducing inventories. When expected dealer inventory reductions level off, and easing actions by central banks and governments around the world begin to improve economic growth, we expect our business will begin to improve. While there's reason for optimism, and we're not expecting a global recession in 2013, we are prepared and stand ready to take action no matter what happens to the global economy," Oberhelman added.
Expect the up 5% to be quietly phased out in the coming months as the PBOC, already brimming with inflation and in a critical political year, does nothing to help western companies' toplines.
Full release link here.