Chicago PMI Misses After Early Leak, Contracts; Employment At 33 Month Low

Half an hour ago, just as the NYSE was preparing to unleash the AAPL selling onslaught, MarketNews released an errant PR in which it indicated that the Chicago PMI missed, coming at 49.9, or well below expectations of a 51.0 print. A few minutes ago MarketNews officially broke the Chicago PMI embargo early, and the early leak was confirmed, with the October PMI printing indeed at 49.9, a modest increase from 49.7 in September, but missing expectations for the third month in a row. And once again the headline belied how ugly the underlying data was, which as even MNI explained, saw the employment index slide to 50.3 from 52.0, and just barely above contraction. Either way, this was the lowest print in 33 months. Surely this will be enough for another massive NFP beat on Friday.

Third miss in a row for the broad index:

Below is a chart of the true employment situation in the US, unadjusted for Obama's reelection chances.

And the always entertaining respondent comments:

  • Like usual our 4th quarter is going to be busy, international orders are picking up, and domestic companies are picking up as well. We should be able to make up some ground on our projected numbers for the year in the 4th quarter.
  • Uncertain how government spending will impact the month of October and November. Aluminum prices increasing, but will it stabilize, which would be good for the industry.
  • Wow, things are getting interesting. It seems we are either heading for another crash or that we may be turning the corner. A few key chemical components have seen significant price increases.
  • Packaging and steel are stable and lower, respectively.
  • Foreclosure activity is increasing but so are investor purchases of these units.
  • Suppliers seem to either have or perceive to have more pricing power, with many attempting price increases.
  • Orders are continuing our way quoting has slowed somewhat but we are expecting a tsunami of new orders.