The Election Is Over And Philly Fed Plunges

Let's see if Bush Sandy can be blamed for not only the Empire Fed, whose employment and expectations components plunged, for the Initial Claims, which soared and missed expectations by the second most in the past 13 years, but also for the Philly Fed, which just plunged from 5.7 to -10.7, far below consensus of 2.0, the 6th miss of the last 8 (except for last month of course), and returning to solidly negative territory after last month's "miraculous" pre-election surge. And while virtually all subcomponents plunged, the one that stood out to the upside was Prices Paid, as the margin collapse is set to ravage all companies not only in the greater Philadelphia region but everywhere else soon as reality, deferred for the duration of the Obama reelection campaign, slams everyone in the stomach.

From the report:

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased 16 points, to a reading of ?10.7. The fallback of the general activity index followed a single positive reading in October that was preceded by five negative monthly readings (see Chart). Nearly 32 percent of firms reported declines in activity this month, while 21 percent reported increases. The demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the current new orders index, declined 4 points from last month and remains in negative territory.


Shipments  also fell this month: The current shipments index fell 7 points, to ?6.7. Declines in inventories were also more widespread this  month; 31 percent of firms reported declines compared with 21 percent in October. Labor market conditions at the reporting firms remained weak this month. The current employment index, at ?6.8, was slightly improved from its negative reading in October (?10.7) but has remained negative for five consecutive months. The percentage of firms reporting decreases in employment (20 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting increases (13 percent). Firms also indicated fewer hours worked: The average workweek index was virtually unchanged but posted its eighth consecutive negative reading.


Price Indexes Drift Higher


The indexes for prices paid for purchased inputs and for prices received for respondents’ own manufactured goods moved higher this month. The prices paid index increased from 19.0 to 27.9, but the increase was attributable to fewer firms reporting lower prices rather than more firms reporting price increases. With respect to their own manufactured goods, the percentage reporting an increase in product prices (16 percent) was greater than the percent reporting a decrease (10 percent). The prices received index increased marginally, from 5.4  to 6.3.

And here is why the combined Empire and Philly Fed diffusion indices spell pain for the upcoming ISM print (courtesy of John Lohman):