On The Demise Of Animal Spirits

Just one more QE-episode... growth will come in two quarters, we promise... housing has bottomed... stocks 'signal' all is well. We have heard these 'meme's a thousand times and yet still what is borrowed is given to shareholders and animal spirits (judging by the dismal confidence among small business leaders) remain mired in the quagmire of uncertainty and risk aversion. Nowhere is this more evident than the roll-over (and now falling) demand for new loans across global credit markets. This is not large public companies borrowing at ultra-rich spreads, courtesy of Bernanke's financial repression forcing supply into IG and HY markets, to merely charm pension funds with dividends; this is real demand for credit (per loan officer surveys) all turning down as the balance-sheet-recession continues.



Chart: Morgan Stanley