One Of These Charts Is Not Like The Other

Today's Sesame Street market moment is brought to you by the word "hope" and by the number '-0.025%'. For the last five months, Goldman notes that the US equity markets have rerated their economic growth view as hope remains for a future full of unicorns and faerie-fart-powered autos. However, the reality is that, as Goldman's macro-economic Swirlogram shows, that the data is no longer indicating expansion and in fact in December shifted into a 'slowdown' mode. Once again we are left, as we head into earnings season where headline numbers have been slashed to make the bar low for beats (but stocks have not re-rated yet), with a divergence between macro (and micro) reality and the nominal equity index implied reality that so many managers hope is true.


Hope... As equity market's nominal price indicates an upward re-rating of economic growth expectations...


And Reality... with the expansions phase ebbing and Goldman's macro tracker now slipping into the slowdown phase...


Source: Goldman


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