Chicago PMI Soars By Most Since October 2009, Biggest Beat Since September 2011

Remember when the Chicago PMI was revised much lower in December, pushing it from 51.6 to some 48.9, as part of its annual revision. Well, the baffle with BS show must go on. Moments ago the PMI printed at a number that makes a complete mockery of all the regional Fed diffusion indices and the various confidence data, not to mention all other manufacturing data, miraculously soaring from 50.0 to 55.6, the highest print since April, the biggest monthly jump since October 2009 and a 5 sigma beat to expectations of 51.6: the biggest such beat in absolute terms since September 2011.

What is funny is that as usual the actual respondents are far gloomier than the headline would indicate

  • 2013 is starting out a tad slower than December of 2012, but after our 4th quarter it's actually welcomed, we will be busy, but not to the extent that we were in 4th quarter of 2012. The year is looking fairly good to start.
  • Some industries are consolidating, like linerboard/corrugate, giving remaining players pricing power despite flat to slower volumes.
  • The Flu outbreak has caused our hospitals to reach capacity - and the result is an allocation from manufacturers on masks.
  • Seems like companies have forgot[ten] how to provide service.
  • Small business still reviewing impact from tax changes. Worry about cost increases in near future.
  • Business is slow out of the gate for 2013.

And since this is Baffle with BS-ville, it is only (il)logical that in the aftermath of today's blistering data, expect tomorrow's ISM to be a miss.