US Business Cycle Index Plunges Most In 22 Months

While broad US macro-economic data has been sliding rapidly of late - now at equivalently bad levels as we saw in August of last year's 'swoon', we have often seen 'survey-based' data provide some fillip to the hard-data deterioration. Hope and faith that recovery is just around the corner provides just enough to hang new all-time high stock prices on. But... in the last two weeks, the surprises from US business cycle and survey-based indicators have plunged. In fact they have dropped at a pace only matched by 2011's Q2 slump that required global coordinated central bank intervention to save it. Perhaps even more interesting from the chart below, is the lower highs being made in these indicators of the business cycle - which confirm the fading reality of any spillover-effect from QE.


Biggest two-week slump in 22 months and lower highs over the past three years of cycles...


Bloomberg ECO US Surveys & Business Cycle Indicators Surprise Index
The Bloomberg ECO Surprise Index (ESI) shows the degree to which economic analysts under- or over-estimate the trends in the business cycle. The surprise element is defined as the percentage (or percentage point) difference between analyst forecasts and the published value of economic data releases.


Charts: Bloomberg