April Core Retail Sales Were Just Revised From A 100% Beat To A Miss

When two weeks ago we reported on the core retail sales "beat", we were surprised. Here's why: "Retail sales ex autos were in line with expectations at -0.1%, on expectations of a -0.2% print, but it was the sales number ex-autos and gas which surprised the most, rising 0.6% on expectations of a +0.3% increase, up from a -0.1% decline." We are no longer surprised. Reuters has the answer:

  • US APRIL RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS/GASOLINE REVISED TO +0.2 PCT (PREV +0.6 PCT)

And, as a reminder, the consensus was for a +0.3% print. So instead of a 100% beat relative to consensus, it was a 50% miss. Why did this happen: from the Census Bureau: "retail sales estimates were revised to reflect the introduction of a new sample, new seasonal factors, and results of the 2011 Annual Retail Trade Survey." Of course, the algos who bid stocks up on the flashing read headline of this now outdated and flawed "beat", will certainly go back and sell all the stocks they were otherwise going to buy, since it is now a "miss."