The week ahead will be relatively quiet with few major data releases. The main focus will be on the Flash PMIs in the Eurozone and China as well as the FOMC minutes and Jackson Hole. In the US the relatively new Preliminary PMI has been found useful by our US team in forecasting the ISM. Existing and new home sales are additional data points of interest in the US. The key focus this week will be on central bank action. Minutes from the FOMC and the RBA will be followed by rate decisions in Thailand and Turkey. Finally, on Thursday starts the annual Jackson Hole conference with lots of Fed speakers, including Yellen next weekend. Chairman Bernanke, whose term ends in January, will not attend.
The Week Ahead
Monday, 19 August
- Japan Trade Balance (Jul): Consensus: - JPY773.5bn, Actual - JPY1 Trillion
- Also interesting: Thailand GDP, Russia Retail Sales, Russia Unemployment Rate, Brazil FIPE CPI, Poland Employment, Chile GDP, Chile
- Current Account Balance, Philippines Current Account Balance.
Tuesday, 20 August
- RBA Minutes (Aug)
- Japan all industry activity index (Jun): Consensus: -0.7% mom, Previous: 1.1%
- Germany PPI (Jul): Consensus: 0.7% yoy, Previous: 0.6%
- Turkish Central Bank Meeting: Consensus expects unchanged rates.
- Also interesting: Norway GDP, Mexico GDP, Ukraine Industrial Production, Taiwan Current Account Balance, Belgium Consumer Confidence Index.
Wednesday, 21 August
- US Existing Home Sales (Jul): Consensus: +0.2%mom, Previous: -1.2%
- US FOMC Minutes (Jul): Look to the minutes from the FOMC's July 30-31 meeting for information about the timing of tapering and a potential extension of forward guidance.
- UK Public Sector net borrowing (Jul): Consensus: -5.5bn, Previous: 10.2bn
- Thailand BOT Benchmark Interest Rate (Aug): Consensus: 2.5%, Previous: 2.5%
- Also interesting: Russia CPI, Brazil IBGE Inflation IPCA-15, South Africa CPI, Malaysia Current Account Balance, Russia Foreign Direct Investment.
Thursday, 22 August
- Fed’s Fisher (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Orlando, Florida
- Markit US PMI Preliminary (Aug): Consensus: 54.0
- Fed’s Jackson Hole Conference Starts: Given that Chairman Bernanke will not attend this year, the importance of the conference is slightly lower than in previous years from a monetary policy point of view.
- US Initial Jobless Claims (Aug): Consensus: 330K, Previous: 320K
- US FHFA Home Price Index (Jun): Consensus +0.6% mom, Previous: +0.7%
- China HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI (Aug): Consensus: 48.2, Previous: 47.7
- Eurozone/France/Germany Flash PMI (Aug): Eurozone consensus: 50.9, Previous: 50.5
- Also interesting: Brazil Unemployment Rate, Portugal Current Account Balance, Spain Trade Balance, Switzerland Trade Balance, Sweden Unemployment Rate, Malaysia Foreign Reserves.
Friday, 23 August
- Germany GDP (Q2): Consensus: +0.7% qoq, Previous: +0.7%. Together with the second reading the Statistical Office will release details of the GDP breakdown.
- UK GDP (Q2): Consensus: +1.4% qoq, Previous: +1.4%
- Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Aug): Consensus: -16.5, Previous: -17.4
- US New Home Sales (Jul): GS: -1.5%, Consensus: -1.4% mom, Previous: +8.3%
- Also interesting: Germany Trade Balance, UK Trade Balance, Canada CPI, Mexico unemployment rate, Chile PPI, Brazil Foreign Investment, Mexico Current Account Balance.