No Dead CAT Recovery On This Sales Chart (Where Caterpillar Asia Sales Post Biggest Drop Since November 2009)

There was some hope two months ago when CAT global retail sales posted a modest uptick between February and May, rising from a recent low of -13% Y/Y to "only" declining -7%. Alas, it turned out to be nothing but a dead CAT bounce, as a month ago hopes the global recovery would continue were dashed after the -7% global dealer retail sales dipped once again to -8%. Moments ago, the downward trend continued its acceleration, when the company reported global retail sales at -9%. And while it was not all bad news, with the US retail sales drop slowing and in July posting an almost flat print at -1%, it was the key market of Asia/Pacific (read China) that plunged by 28% from past year, far worse than the 21% drop in June, and the ugliest Y/Y comp since November 2009. Any day now, though, the third cat bounce will take place.

The chart below of retail sales broken down by geographic bucket speaks for itself.

Source: the Company


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