June Case Shiller Misses, Y/Y Growth Posts First Slowdown Since December 2011

While Case Shiller is about as backward looking an indicator as they come (June housing data when it is almost September is pretty much completely useless), today's release showed yet another miss relative to expectations, with the 20 City Composite posting a monthly increase of 0.89%, missing expectations of 1% (for the second month in a row), was the third consecutive month of a slowing growth, and the lowest sequential growth since November 2012.

Just as notable, the Y/Y increase of 12.0% saw the first annual slowdown since December 2011 when the annual pace of increase ramped from -4.0% to a peak of 12.2% in May. Naturally, to anyone not stuck in an ivory tower, the ongoing slowdown in the housing market due to soaring rates is perfectly expected. The only question is if and when the key marginal buyer - the all cash investor - moves aside, what will happen to the underlying data series then, and just how big will the plunge back to trendline ex-Bernanke cheap credit and REO-to-Rent subsidized funding be.


As a bonus, for those betting on the reincarnation of Dogtown, aka Detroit, based on recent hilarious housing performance, we have bad news: even Detroit home prices are now slowing down, if marginally for now.