Chicago PMI Prints As Expected, Employment Component Drops To Four Month Low

The headline Chicago PMI, as leaked by the subscribers when it was released at 9:52 am, came just as expected at 53.0. And once again the story, if any, was in the components, with New Orders rising from 53.9 and Inventories finally increasing from 37.7 to 45, however this was offset by a decline in Employment from 56.6 to 54.9, a 4 month low. Perhaps the most notable line from the release is that some respondents reported "supply chain disruptions" - one wonders how much this is due to the recent and ongoing drubbing in emerging markets.

The full component breakdown:

  • Business Activity at 53.0 vs est. 53
  • Forecast range 51 - 55 from 53 economists surveyed
  • Prices Paid rose to 65.2 vs 63.6 last month
  • New Orders rose to 57.2 vs 53.9 last month
  • Employment fell to 54.9 vs 56.6 last month
  • Inventory rose to 45 vs 37.7 last month
  • Supplier Deliveries fell to 50.8 vs 51.0 last month
  • Production fell to 53 vs 53.6 last month
  • Order Backlogs rose to 46.5 vs 42.9 last month

And since the Chicago PMI in recent months has become the opposite of the ISM (traditionally the two ran hand in hand), we wonder if this means the Manufacturing ISM released next week will also print unchanged?