Will We Ever Learn? 36 Years Of Over-Optimistic Earnings Growth

Ever get that feeling of Deja Vu when year after year things don't go quite as well as expected in the beginning of the year. We are sure the Fed does, but the chart below should provide enough evidence of the "value" being added by a consensus of equity analyst extrapolators over the last 36 years. On average consensus EPS growth rates have performed the anti-Gartman - slumping from over-optimistic highs of the left to dismal reality check lows on the left. Of course, hope remains that this year will be different... but it doesn't appear to be heading that way.

 

Since 1976, Morgan Stanley shows the average consensus EPS growth rate trajectory among the consensus... doesn't seem to be so "accurate"...

 

But it remains assured that this time will be different if we look ahead yet again...

 

Charts: Morgan Stanley