The "Hard" Data Doesn't Lie

Over the last several months, “hard” economic data have been telling a much different story than “soft” economic data. On the one hand, soft surveys such as the ISM manufacturing index have pointed to robust economic growth. On the flip side, hard economic data have been disappointing. We previously pointed out Goldman's view of the "soft" surveys relatively weak ability to project growth, but as BofAML warns, even before the government shutdown cut off the flow of hard economic data, they were tracking just 1.6% qoq saar for third quarter growth. Confidence is already taking a nose-dive as the shutdown continues and BofAML warns of the potential for significant and lasting shocks to growth if things do not improve quickly.

 

 

Via BofAML