Key Events In The Coming Week

This week brings a slew of central bank meetings: At the forefront will be the BOJ meeting on Tuesday where no changes to monetary policy are expected. However, we will be watching the commentary closely for hints to further monetary easing in the coming months. Goldman, and others, still expect the BOJ to provide additional stimulus in the second quarter of this year as the impact of the consumption tax hike on the economy becomes visible - it is that expectation that sent the USDJPY above 100 in late 2013 and any disappointment by the BOJ will certainly have an adverse impact on the all important Yen carry pair.

In terms of the key data to watch this week, the themes of recent weeks remain the same: US activity data, with retail sales and the U. Michigan Consumer sentiment survey the main releases, European inflation trends (French and German HCPI data on Thursday and Friday, respectively), and finally external balances in EM. Within that group, the latest data points for trade and current account balances in India, Turkey and South Africa will receive the most attention.

Monday, March 10

  • Japan Current Account Balance (Jan): Consensus -¥1411.8B, previous -¥638.6B
  • Japan Economy Watcher Survey (Feb): Consensus 54.1, previous 54.7
  • Israel MPC minutes
  • Canada Housing Starts (Feb): Consensus 190k saar, previous 180.1k
  • Also interesting: France/Italy/Turkey IP, Israel GDP, Norway CPI

Tuesday, March 11

  • Japan BOJ meeting: We and consensus expect no change to current policy measures.
  • US Wholesale Trade (Jan): Consensus +0.5%, previous +0.3%
  • Italy GDP (Q4, Final): Consensus +0.1% qoq, previous +0.1%
  • Israel Current Account Balance (4Q): Previous US$363mn
  • Also Interesting: UK/Brazil IP, Ukraine GDP, Hungary Consumer Prices

Wednesday, March 12

  • US Federal Budget Balance (Feb): Consensus -$206bn, previous -$10.4bn
  • UK Trade Balance (Jan): Consensus -£2200, previous –£1.0bn
  • Japan Consumer Confidence (Feb): Consensus 40, previous 40.5
  • Spain HCPI (Feb, final): Consensus flat yoy, previous flat
  • Euro Area IP (Jan): Consensus +0.5% mom, previous -0.7%
  • Turkey Current Account Balance (Jan): Consensus -US$5.3bn, previous -US$8.3bn
  • South Africa Current Account Balance (4Q): Consensus -ZAR192.7, previous -ZAR232.7bn
  • Brazil IPCA Inflation (Feb): Consensus +0.65% mom, previous +0.55%
  • Also Interesting: India CPI, Hungary Trade Balance, Australia Housing Finance

Thursday, March 13

  • US Retail Sales (Feb): Consensus +0.2%, previous -0.4%
  • US Retail Sales ex autos (Feb): Consensus +0.2%, previous flat
  • US Retail Sales ex autos, bldg materials, gas (Feb): Consensus +0.3%, previous -0.3%
  • US Business Inventories (Jan): Consensus +0.4%, previous +0.5%
  • China IP (Feb): Consensus +9.5%, previous +9.7%
  • China Fixed Asset Investment (Feb): Consensus +19.4%, previous +19.6%
  • Australia Unemployment Rate (Feb): Consensus 6.0%, previous 6.0%
  • Australia Employment Report (Feb): Cconsensus +15k, previous -3.7k
  • UK RICS Housing Market Survey (Feb): Consensus 52%, previous 53%
  • France HCPI (Feb): Consensus +1.0% yoy, previous +0.8%
  • Italy HCPI (Feb, final): Consensus +0.5% yoy, previous +0.5%
  • Sweden Unemployment Rate (Feb): Consensus 8.4%, previous 8.6%
  • Also Interesting: Spain/China/Brazil retail sales, Colombia MPC minutes, Russia Trade Balance, Mexico IP, US initial jobless claims

Friday, March 14

  • US PPI (Jan): Consensus +0.2%, previous +0.2%
  • US Core PPI (Jan): Consensus +0.1%, previous +0.2%
  • US U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (Mar): Consensus 82.0, previous 81.6
  • Germany HCPI (Feb, final): Consensus +1.0% yoy, previous +1.0%
  • Russia MPC meeting: We and consensus expect no change in interest rates following the CBR board's decision to hike its policy rate by 150bps in an unscheduled meeting on the morning of March 3.
  • India Wholesale Price Index (Feb): Consensus +4.9% yoy, previous +5.1%

The same, charted via BofA:

Source: Goldman, BofA