Key Events In The Coming Week

There is a reasonably quiet start to the week before we head into the highlights of the week including the start of US reporting season tomorrow, FOMC minutes on Wednesday and IMF meetings in Washington on Friday. On the schedule for today central bank officials from the ECB including Mersch, Weidmann and Constancio will be speaking. The Fed’s Bullard speaks today, and no doubt there will be interest in his comments from last week suggesting that the Fed will hike rates in early 2015.

On Tuesday, the Q1 reporting season unofficially kicks off with earnings from Alcoa. First-quarter earnings from S&P 500 companies are expected to have increased about only 1.2% yoy according to Thomson Reuters data — that is down from earlier estimates of a circa 6% increase. Staying with tomorrow, the BoJ releases its latest Monetary Policy Statement and the expectation is that the central bank will keep its policy unchanged for the time being. In terms of data, UK industrial production will be the main focus. The ECB’s Weidmann speaks again and the Fed’s Kocherlakota and Plosser (both voters) will be giving speeches.

On Wednesday, the FOMC minutes from the February meeting will be the main focus of the day. The minutes will hopefully provide more colour  around the recent shift in the Fed’s rate expectations as well as the Fed’s shift to more qualitative guidance. The US also releases whole inventories data. The BoE meets on Thursday on the same day that the ECB publishes its monthly bulletin. China reports its March trade numbers which will be an important data release following the volatility in export numbers year-to-date. US jobless claims are also scheduled for Thursday.

On Friday, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo will be the first of the major US banks to report earnings for Q1. On the macro side, we get the preliminary UofMichigan confidence report together with US PPI. The BoJ releases its March Meeting minutes on Friday. A three day World Bank and IMF spring meeting is scheduled to commence on Friday in Washington, which will be attended by the world’s central bankers and finance ministers. Ahead of that, the IMF publishes its Global Financial Stability report on Wednesday.

The complete weekly US macro event calendar:

And the detailed breakdown:

Monday, April 7

  • Events: Speeches by ECB’s Mersch and Constancio, Fed’s Bullard; Iran and World Powers hold talks in Vienna (3 days).
  • United States | Consumer Credit (Feb): Consensus $14.0bn, previous $13.7bn
  • Germany | IP (Feb): Previous -0.3%mom (0.8%yoy)
  • Switzerland | CPI YoY (Mar): Previous -0.10%
  • Japan | Leading Index CI (Feb P): Previous 113.1
  • Norway | Manufacturing Production (Feb): Previous -0.4%mom (2.7%yoy)
  • Taiwan | CPI YoY (Mar): Consensus 0.95%, previous -0.05%
  • Czech Republic | IP YoY (Feb): consensus 6.50%, previous 5.50%
  • Ukraine | CPI MoM (Mar): Consensus 1.30% (2.20%yoy), previous 0.60% (1.20%yoy)
  • Also interesting: [DM] Euro area Sentix Investor Confidence; Spain Industrial Output; Australia ANZ Job Advertisements. [EM] Brazil IGP-DI CPI; Chile IMACEC Economic Activity; Taiwan trade balance; Israel MPC minutes’ Romania wages; Czech Republic trade balance.

Tuesday, April 8

  • Events: Speeches by Euro area’s Van Rompuy, Fed’s Kocherlakota (voting FOMC), Fed’s Plosser (voting FOMC), and Norges Bank’s Olsen; Fed Board open meeting on leverage ratios rulemakings.
  • United States | NFIB Small Business Optimism (Mar): Previous 91.4
  • Japan | MPC: No change in policy expected (monetary base target at ¥270T)
  • United Kingdom | IP (Feb): previous 0.1%mom (2.9%yoy)
  • Canada | Housing Starts (Mar): Previous (r) 191.9K
  • Australia | NAB Business Survey (Mar): Previous 7 (confidence), 0 (conditions)
  • Indonesia | MPC: Rates should be on hold (at 7.50%, same as consensus and previous)
  • Hungary | IP WDA YoY (Feb P): consensus 6.70%, previous 6.10%
  • Turkey | IP YoY (Feb): Consensus 4.9%, previous 7.30%
  • Chile | CPI MoM (Mar): consensus 0.70% (3.30%yoy), previous 0.50% (3.20%yoy)
  • Also interesting: [DM] Japan BoP CA; Bank of France Business Sentiment; France Trade Balance; Switzerland Unemployment, Canada Building Permits; New Zealand NZIER Business Survey. [EM] Chile Trade Balance; Mexico Gross Fixed Investment.

Wednesday, April 9

  • Events: Fed’s Minutes from March 18-19 FOMC Meeting; BoJ’s Monthly Economic Report; Speeches by Fed’s Evan (non-voting FOMC) and Tarullo (voting FOMC; Indonesia legislative elections.
  • United States | Wholesale Inventories MoM (Feb): Consensus 0.50%, previous (r) 0.70%
  • Sweden | MPC: Rates expected on hold (at 0.75%, same as previous) but expect the Riskbank to lower its forecasts repo rate path slightly.
  • Germany | Trade Balance (Feb): Previous 15.0B
  • Netherlands | IP MoM (Feb): Previous -3.10% (2.0%yoy)
  • Australia | Home Loans MoM (Feb): consensus 1.5%, previous 0.00%
  • Mexico | CPI MoM (Mar): (3.78%yoy), previous 0.25% (4.23%yoy)
  • Czech Republic | CPI YoY (Mar): consensus 0.20%, previous 0.20%
  • Also interesting: [DM] UK Trade Balance; Denmark CA; New Zealand Electronic Card Transactions; Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence. [EM] Brazil IPCA CPI; Trade balance in Hungary and Romania; Hungary MPC minutes; South Korea Unemployment; Mexico ANTAD Same-Store Sales.

Thursday, April 10

  • Events: ECB Publishes Monthly Report; Remarks by RBI’s Rajan, ECB’s Constancio and Fed’s Evans (non-voting FOMC) at Brookings Panel.
  • United States | Import Price Index MoM (Mar): Consensus 0.20%, previous 0.90%
  • United Kingdom | MPC: No change in policy expected (0.50%, £375bn, same as previous)
  • Japan | Bank Lending Ex-Trusts YoY (Mar): Previous 2.40%
  • France | IP MoM (Feb): Consensus 0.20%, previous -0.20%
  • France | CPI EU Harmonized YoY (Mar): Consensus 0.80%, previous 1.10%
  • Italy | IP (Feb): Previous 1.00%mom (1.4%yoy)
  • Brazil | IPCA Inflation MoM (Mar): previous 0.69% (5.68%yoy)
  • China | Trade Balance (Mar): Consensus -US$0.95bn, previous -US$22.99B
  • Romania | CPI YoY (Mar): previous 1.1%
  • Also interesting: [DM] US Federal Budget Balance; CPI in Denmark, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden; United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance; Canada New Housing Price index; Japan Machine Orders; Australia Unemployment and Participation Rate; New Zealand Business Manufacturing PMI. [EM] Brazil MPC minutes; Philippines exports; Malaysia IP; Philippines Exports; Colombia Confidence; South Africa Manufacturing Production.

Friday, April 11

  • Events: S&P publishes sovereign debt ratings for Denmark and Finland; Fitch publishes rating for Portugal, and Moody’s for Sweden; World Bank and IMF Spring Meeting in Washington.
  • United States | Reuters/U. Mich. Consumer Sentiment (Apr P): Consensus 81.0, previous 80.0
  • United States | PPI Final Demand MoM (Mar): consensus 0.10%, previous -0.10%
  • Germany | Harmonized CPI YoY (Mar F): previous 0.9% (flash)
  • Spain | Harmonized CPI YoY (Mar F): previous -0.2% (flash)
  • China | CPI YoY (Mar): Consensus 2.50%, previous 2.00%
  • India | IP YoY (Feb): previous 0.10%
  • Mexico | IP YoY (Feb): previous 0.70%
  • Hungary | CPI YoY (Mar): consensus 0.2%, previous 0.10%
  • Also interesting: [DM] UK Construction; France CA; Japan M2 and M3; Japan Domestic CGPI; New Zealand Food Prices and REINZ House Sales; Sweden Unemployment. [EM] China PPI; CA in Czech Republic and Turkey; Trade Balance in Poland and Russia

Source: Deutsche, BofA, Goldman