The coming week will be busy in terms of data releases in the US; highlights include an improvement in consumer confidence, anemic 1Q GDP growth, and solid non-farm payrolls (consensus expects 215K). Wednesday brings advanced 1Q GDP - consensus expected a pathetic 1.1% qoq, on the back of what Goldman scapegoats as "weather distortions and an inventory investment drag", personal consumption (consensus 1.9%), and FOMC (the meeting is not associated with economic projections or a press conference). Thursday brings PCE Core (consensus 0.20%). Friday brings non-farm payrolls (consensus of 215K) and unemployment (6.6%). Other indicators for the week include pending home sales, S&P/Case Shiller home price index, Chicago PMI, ADP employment, personal income/spending, and hourly earnings.
Outside of the US, the coming week brings consumer confidence and flash inflation in the Euro area; UK 1Q GDP; plus the BoJ meeting. Tuesday brings consumer confidence indicators in France and Germany, in addition to UK advanced 1Q GDP. On Wednesday Euro area inflation for April is expected to from 0.5% to 0.9% yoy. Later in the week we expect national business surveys (final April readings). In Japan the key event is the BoJ meeting on Wednesday. Consensus expects no change in policy (in line with consensus) as little post-VAT hike information will be available and the Governor made it clear in the last press conference that there was no need for further easing for now. The Outlook Report will also be published, which is expected to say the BoJ will adhere to its scenario for inflation to reach 2% by end-FY2014 (link).
In EMs, the coming week’s focus will be on the MPC in Israel and Hungary, Korean exports, China NBS PMI, and polls related to Brazil's elections. Among other releases or events, Monday brings Israel MPC, Tuesday brings Hungary MPC, Wednesday brings Taiwan and Ukraine advanced 1Q GDP, Thursday brings Korean exports and China’s NBS PMI (expected to print just modestly above last month's 50.3 to 50.4, balancing policy measures, exports rebound, and property sector drag). The week also includes inflation prints in Indonesia, Peru, and Thailand, among others. In the absence of major data releases in LatAm, market focus will likely center on polls related to Brazil’s election.
Geopolitical events related to the situation in Ukraine and Russia will likely attract heightened market attention. Following the escalation of the conflict over the past few days, the G7 agreed to impose new sanctions on Russia. The announcement of the specific sanctions could come as early as Monday, and markets are likely to continue focusing on related headlines. In turn, highlights of the week in terms of policy-maker interventions include BoJ’s Kuroda’s press briefing (on Wednesday), in addition to speeches by US Fed’s Chair Yellen and BoE's Cunliffe (on Thursday).
Monday, April 28
- Events: ECB’s Noyer holds press conference; Debate of candidates for European Commission Presidency.
- United States | Pending Home Sales MoM (Mar): Consensus 0.70% (-10.20% yoy), previous -0.80% (-10.20% yoy)
- Italy | Consumer Confidence Index (Apr): Consensus 101.2, previous 101.7
- Sweden | Retail Sales MoM (Mar): Consensus 0.20% (2.70% yoy), previous 0.40% (2.50% yoy)
- Israel | MPC: rates are expected to remain on hold,
- Thailand | Mfg Production Index ISIC NSA YoY (Mar): Consensus -7.80%, previous -4.40%
- Turkey | Consumer Confidence Index (Apr): Previous 72.7
- Also interesting: [DM] US Dallas Fed Manuf Activity Index; UK Hometrack Housing Survey; Germany Import Prices; Sweden PPI and Trade Balance; Japan Retail Trade; Hong Kong Trae Balance [EM] Trade Balance in Colombia, Mexico and Thailand; Leading Index in China and Taiwan.
Tuesday, April 29
- Events: US SEC’s White testifies; EU’s Van Rompuy presents book on Euro crisis; IMF releases Europe Spring Regional Economic Issues Report; French Parliament votes on Hollande spending cuts.
- United States | Consumer Confidence Index (Apr): consensus 83.0, previous 82.3
- United States | S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index NSA (Feb): Consensus 0.6%, previous 0.8%
- United States | GS Analysts Index (Apr): Previous 56.5
- Germany | GfK Consumer Confidence (May): Consensus 8.5, previous 8.5
- France | Consumer Confidence (Apr): Consensus 88, previous 88
- Germany | CPI EU Harmonized MoM (Apr P): Consensus -0.10% (1.30 yoy), previous 0.30% (0.90% yoy)
- United Kingdom | GDP QoQ (1Q A): consensus 0.90%, previous 0.70%
- Hungary | MPC: We expect another cut in rates by 10bp (from 2.60% to 2.50%). We also expect the MPC to announce the end of the easing cycle and to use non-rate tools from now on to ease financial conditions, support lending to the private sector and demand for government bonds, and to anchor the yield curve.
- Also interesting: [DM] Euro area consumer, economic, and industrial confidence; Euro area M3 Money Supply; Italy Retail Sales and Business Confidence; UK Services Output; NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade; Spain Unemployment; Germany various regional CPI; Sweden Economic Tendency Survey [EM] South Korea BoP CA; Brazil IGP-M Inflation and Bank Lending.
Wednesday, April 30
- Events: BoJ’s Kuroda press briefing after outlook report; Speeches by EU’s Van Rompuy and Barroso, former Fed Chair Bernanke.
- United States | ADP Employment Change (Apr): consensus 210K, previous 191K
- United States | Employment Cost Index (1Q): Consensus 0.50%, previous 0.50%
- United States | GDP Annualized QoQ (1Q A): consensus 1.10%, previous 2.60%
- United States | Personal Consumption (1Q A): consensus 1.90%, previous 3.30%
- United States | Chicago Purchasing Manager (Apr): consensus 56.5, previous 55.9
- United States | FOMC: Consensus expected a $10 billin reduction in monthly taper to $45 billion
- Euro area | CPI Harmonized MoM (Apr P): previous 0.50%
- Italy | CPI EU Harmonized MoM (Apr P): Consensus 0.50% (0.5% yoy), previous (r) 2.20% (0.30% yoy)
- Spain | GDP QoQ (1Q P): GS 0.30%, consensus 0.40%, previous 0.20%
- Spain | CPI EU Harmonised YoY (Apr P): Consensus 0.30%, previous -0.20%
- United Kingdom | GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr): Previous -5.0
- Japan | MPC: The BoJ is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged. In the press conference following the previous meeting, the Governor stressed that there was no need for monetary easing for now, and given that few economic data in the wake of the VAT hike have been published yet, additional easing seems unlikely.
- Japan | Industrial Production MoM (Mar P): GS 0.70%, consensus 0.50%, previous -2.30%
- Japan | Housing Starts YoY (Mar): consensus -2.90%, previous 1.00%
- Canada | GDP MoM (Feb): Consensus 0.20%, previous 0.50%
- Australia | Private Sector Credit MoM (Mar): consensus 0.40%, previous 0.40%
- New Zealand | ANZ Business Confidence (Apr): Previous 67.3
- South Korea | Industrial Production SA MoM (Mar): consensus 1.00%, previous -1.80%
- Taiwan | GDP YoY (1Q P): consensus 3.08%, previous 2.95%
- Ukraine | GDP YoY (1Q P): consensus -1.60%, previous 3.30%
- Also interesting: [DM] Germany Retail Sales and Unemployment Change; France Consumer Spending and PPI; Unemployment in Norway, and Italy; Spain CA; Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator; New Zealand Building Consents Issued; Japan vehicle production; South Korea Business Survey; Singapore Unemployment [EM] Israel unemployment; Trade Balance in Turkey, South Africa and Thailand; Mexico Bank Lending; Chile Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales, and Unemployment; Argentina Construction Activity; Colombia Unemployment.
Thursday, May 1
- Events: Speeches by Fed’s Yellen, BoE's Cunliffe.
- United States | Personal Income (Mar): consensus 0.50%, previous 0.30%
- United States | Personal Spending (Mar): consensus 0.60%, previous 0.30%
- United States | PCE Deflator MoM (Mar): consensus 0.20%, previous 0.10%
- United States | PCE Core MoM (Mar): consensus 0.20%, previous 0.10%
- United States | Construction Spending MoM (Mar): consensus 0.60%, previous 0.10%
- United States | ISM Manufacturing (Apr): consensus 54.2, previous 53.7
- United States | Domestic Vehicle Sales (Apr): consensus 12.80M, previous 12.78M
- United Kingdom | Mortgage Approvals (Mar): Consensus 72.0K, previous 70.3K
- United Kingdom | Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA (Apr): Consensus 55.4, previous 55.3
- China | Manufacturing PMI (Apr): consensus 50.4, previous 50.3
- South Korea | CPI YoY (Apr): consensus 1.50%, previous 1.30%
- South Korea | Exports YoY (Apr): consensus 5.00%, previous (r) 5.10%
- Thailand | CPI YoY (Apr): Consensus 2.30% (0.26% mom), previous 2.11% (0.22% mom)
- Peru | CPI MoM (Apr): consensus 0.28% (3.40% yoy), previous 0.52% (3.38% yoy)
- Also interesting: [DM] UK Nationwide House Prices; Australia RP Data House Prices and Commodity Index; Denmark Unemployment and Danish PMI Survey [EM] South Korea Trade Balance.
Friday, May 2
- Events: Speech by EU’s Barroso; Norway sovereign debt rating published by Fitch, S&P.
- United States | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr): GS 220K, consensus 215K, previous 192K
- United States | Unemployment Rate (Apr): GS 6.60%, consensus 6.60%, previous 6.70%
- United States | Change in Private Payrolls (Apr): GS 215K, consensus 210K, previous 192K
- United States | Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Apr): GS 0.20%, consensus 0.20%, previous 0.00%
- Euro area | Unemployment Rate (Mar): Consensus 11.90%, previous 11.90%
- Euro area | Markit EU Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Previous 53.4
- United Kingdom | Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Apr): Consensus 62.2, previous 62.5
- Japan | Overall Household Spending YoY (Mar): GS 1.00%, consensus 1.70%, previous -2.50%
- South Korea | HSBC South Korea Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Previous 50.4
- Indonesia | CPI YoY (Apr): Consensus 7.28% (0.05% mom), previous 7.32% (0.08% mom)
- India | HSBC India Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Previous 51.3
- Also interesting: [DM] US Factory Orders and ISM New York; PMI Manufacturing in France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland; Japan Unemployment; Australia HIA New Home Sales; Australia PPI; New Zealand ANZ Commodity Prices; Hong Kong Retail Sales [EM] PMI Manufacturing in Brazil, Czech Republic, Hungary, Indonesia, Mexico (HSBC and IMEF), Poland, Taiwan, Turkey, and South Africa (Kagiso); Mexico Worker Remittances; Trade Balance in Brazil and Indonesia
Source: Goldman, BofA