IceCap Asset Management: "The Only Thing Booming In Europe Is Separatist Movements"

The stock markets are booming, the economy is booming, and the main stream media is booming with stories about both. Yet, as IceCap Asset Management's Keith Dicker warns, if one looked closely between all of this booming, one would find that everything isn’t quite booming after all.

For starters, the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll reported 54% of respondents would vote to replace EVERY member of the American congress if the ballot option was available. Let’s think about that for a moment – the majority of people in the most democratic country in the world would boot out every single elected official in Washington.

This isn’t exactly a booming vote of confidence.

The same poll also reported that 66% believe the American economy is on the wrong track and 65% said their representative didn’t deserve another term in Washington.

But, the economy and the stock market are booming.

Shifting our attention to Europe, the big media and governments are also reporting that the stock market is booming and the economy is also booming once again – just as the governments hoped (there’s that word again) it would.

Yet, if the stock market and the economy are booming why do we see:

  • UK considering leaving the European Union
  • Scotland voting to leave the UK
  • Catalonia voting to leave Spain
  • Venice voting to leave Italy
  • Greece not being allowed a vote on leaving the Eurozone.


From our perspective, the only thing booming in Europe are separatist movements – no one wants to stay, except of course those who have a vested interest in the status quo.

...

We are very confident that it is only a matter of when – not if, the Eurozone breaks and the breaking will be caused by either a planned election or a grass roots social movement to force change.

Now, there are numerous straws that can break the European camel’s back – simply close your eyes and pick one. The point being, despite umpteen different bailouts, followed by umpteen different stimulus programs, neatly delivered by umpteen different election promises – current European governments are increasingly becoming less enamoured by its voting citizens.

 

Full IceCap Letter below:

2014.05 IceCap Global Market Outlook