The post-weather bounce is over in exuberant employment trends appears to be over. After January's plunge, the last 3 months have seen beats but May's data - printing at 179k (against expectations of 210k) is a major disappointment for the extrapolators and presses job griwth back to its lowest since January. Rubbing salt in the wound of recovery, April's data was revised downward. It was so bad, even the permabullish Mark Zandi was unable to spin the data: "Job growth moderated in May. The slowing in growth was concentrated in Professional/Business Services and companies with 50-999 employees. The job market has yet to break out from the pace of growth that has prevailed over the last three years.”
For the first time in a while, we actually saw a job decline in one subset of companies: those with 500-999 worker:
From the report:
Goods-producing employment rose by 29,000 jobs in May, up from 21,000 jobs gained in April. The construction industry added 14,000 jobs over the month, down slightly from 16,000 in April. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 10,000 jobs in May, up from April’s 2,000 and the largest number since December last year.
Service-providing employment rose by 150,000 jobs in May, down from 194,000 in April. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/ business services contributed the most to the lower overall number in May - adding 46,000 jobs, down from 75,000 in April. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 35,000, the same number of jobs added in April. The 6,000 new jobs added in financial activities was down slightly from 8,000 last month.
"After a strong post-winter rebound in April, job growth in May slowed somewhat,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “The 179,000 jobs added figure is higher than May of last year and in line with the average over the past twelve months.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "Job growth moderated in May. The slowing in growth was concentrated in Professional/Business Services and companies with 50-999 employees. The job market has yet to break out from the pace of growth that has prevailed over the last three years.”
The full chart breakdown:
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment
Historical Trend - Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment
Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry