Key Events In The Coming Holiday-Shortened, Very Busy Week

The holiday shortened and very busy week includes the following highlights: [on Monday] US Chicago PMI (expect a small move down to a still-strong level of 62), Euro area flash harmonized CPI (expect a slight fall to 0.40% yoy), UK GFK Consumer Confidence, Japan IP; [on Tuesday] US ISM Manufacturing (expect 56), Construction Spending, and Vehicle Sales, in addition to a host of PMI Manufacturing in various countries, Australia MP Decision (expect on hold with neutral bias), and South Korea exports (expect a modest 1%, vs. consensus at 5.1%); [on Wednesday] US ADP Employment (expect 215K, slightly above consensus), Factory Orders (-0.40%), and UK Construction PMI; [on Thursday] US Non-farm Payrolls (expect 210K, a touch below consensus) and Unemployment (expect 6.30%, in line with consensus and previous), MP Decisions by ECB (expect no change in policy) and Riksbank (expect 25bp cut), in addition to various Services and Composite PMIs; [on Friday] (US holiday) Germany Factory Orders and Sweden IP.

The week is relatively light on policy-maker speeches, with highlights including RBA’s Stevens, in addition to Merkel, Draghi, Schaeuble and Weidmann at a CDU event (on Thursday). Friday is a holiday in the US.

Deutsche Bank has a slighly more streamling breakdown:

  • Taking a closer look at this week’s calendar, the data docket starts off with the US Chicago PMI and pending home sales data later today. Ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday, today’s advance Euroarea CPI print for June will be followed with interest and Bloomberg consensus is expecting no change from May’s 0.5% YoY run rates. In emerging markets, South Africa and Turkey report their latest trade data and Argentina’s dispute with holdout creditors comes to a head with a key payment on restructured bonds due today. Argentina indicated on Friday that it wanted to make payment but the transfer was effectively blocked by a US judge.
  • Tuesday will be all about the global manufacturing PMIs and US ISM with perhaps the greatest focus on the official Chinese PMI and the US ISM manufacturing for signs of a pickup in manufacturing activity. Japan reports Tankan business confidence and the Bank of England publishes its minutes from its last Financial Policy meeting in which it decided on new measures to take some of the heat out of mortgage lending. The RBA meets on Tuesday, but no change to policy is expected.
  • Yellen takes the stage with a lecture on financial stability at the IMF in Washington on Wednesday. Yellen had some fairly dovish words to say on financial stability at the last FOMC press conference, and one would expect a similar tone on Wednesday. The data docket features ADP employment, US factory orders and Brazil industrial production.
  • Thursday will be the key day this week with non-farm payrolls and the ECB meeting. The ECB is widely expected to stay put this month after the announcements at its June meeting, but as always Draghi’s press conference will be important. In terms of June’s payrolls, consensus is for a +215k gain in the headline and for unemployment to remain at 6.3%. The hawks will be watching for signs of wage growth but hourly earnings are expected to drop to a rate of 1.9% YoY from 2.1% in the previous month. Other data on Thursday’s calendar are US trade, jobless claims and the global non-manufacturing PMIs.  Turkey’s June CPI will be the key event to watch in EM. US markets shut early on Thursday for Independence Day.
  • Friday will be pretty quiet with the week’s major events out of the way and with US markets shut for holidays. German factory orders round off the week’s data docket. Finally Moody’s will publish the result of their review of Belgium and Netherland’s sovereign debt rating on Friday.

And here is Goldman's event-by-event global macro summary:

Monday, June 30

  • Events: Canada holds by-elections in four districts.
  • United States | Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jun): GS62.0, consensus 63.0, previous 65.5
  • Canada | GDP MoM (Apr): Consensus 0.20% (2.10% yoy), previous 0.10%
  • Euro area | CPI Harmonized YoY (Jun): GS 0.40%, previous 0.50%
  • Euro area | CPI Core YoY (Jun A): Consensus 0.70%, previous 0.70%
  • Italy | CPI EU Harmonized YoY (Jun P): Previous 0.20%
  • Euro area | M3 Money Supply YoY (May): Consensus 0.70%, previous 0.80%
  • Denmark | GDP QoQ (1Q F): Previous 0.90% (1.40% yoy)
  • United Kingdom | GFK Consumer Confidence (June): Previous 0
  • United Kingdom | Mortgage Approvals (May): Consensus 61.7K, previous 62.9K
  • Japan | Industrial Production MoM (May P): Consensus 0.90% (1.60% yoy), previous -2.80% (3.80% yoy)
  • Japan | Housing Starts YoY (May): Consensus -10.50%, previous -3.30%
  • Australia | Private Sector Credit MoM (May): GS 0.50%, consensus 0.40%, previous 0.50%
  • New Zealand | Building Permits MoM (May): GS-3.00%, previous 1.50%
  • South Korea | Business Survey Manufacturing (Jul): Previous 81
  • Brazil | Primary Budget Balance (May): GS –R$11B, previous R$16.9B
  • Argentina | Economic Activity Index YoY (Apr): GS -1.80%, previous -0.90%
  • Also interesting: [DM] US Pending Home Sales and Dallas Fed Manf. Activity; Italy PPI; Denmark Unemployment; Australia TD Securities Inflation and HIA New Home Sales; NZ ANZ Business Confidence [EM] Bank Lending in Mexico and Philippines; Brazil Net Debt; Chile Copper Production, Retail Sales and Unemployment; Turkey Trade Balance; South Africa Money Supply, Private Sector Credit and Trade Balance; Poland CA and NBP Inflation Expectations; Thailand Trade Balance and CA.

Tuesday, July 1

  • Events: Germany’s Schaeuble discussion with German Foreign Press Group.
  • United States | ISM Manufacturing (Jun): GS 56.0, consensus 55.8, previous 55.4
  • United States | Construction Spending MoM (May): GS 0.70%, consensus 0.50%, previous 0.20%
  • United States | Total Vehicle Sales (Jun): GS 16.4M, consensus 16.30M, previous 16.70M
  • DMs | PMI Manufacturing (Jun): Euro area (F: GS 51.9, consensus 51.9, previous 51.9), France (F: GS 47.8, Previous 47.8), Germany (F: GS 52.4, consensus 52.4, previous 52.4), Italy (Previous 53.2), Japan (F: Previous 51.1), Denmark (Previous 60.2), Norway (GS 50.5, previous 49.8), South Korea (Previous 49.5), Spain (Previous 52.9), Sweden (GS 53.9, previous 54.1), Switzerland (Previous 52.5), UK (Consensus 56.7, previous 57), US (Previous 57.5).
  • Euro area | Unemployment Rate (May): Consensus 11.70%, previous 11.70%
  • Germany | Unemployment Change (000's) (Jun): Consensus -10K (rate at 6.7%), previous 24K (rate at 6.7%)
  • Japan | Tankan Large Mfg Outlook (2Q): Consensus 17, previous 8
  • Australia | MP Decision: We expect the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged (at 2.50%) and retain its neutral policy bias. That said, it has sounded incrementally more
  • on the outlook over recent times and we continue to forecast another rate cut this cycle (Sept: -25pb).
  • South Korea | Exports YoY (Jun): GS 1.0%, consensus 5.10%, previous (r) -1.00%
  • South Korea | CPI YoY (Jun): GS 1.80%, consensus 1.90%, previous 1.70%
  • EMs | PMI Manufacturing (Jun): China (GS 51.0, consensus 51.1, previous 50.8), China HSBC (F: Consensus 50.8, previous 50.8), Czech Republic (Previous 57.3), Hungary (Previous 50.1), India (Previous 51.4), Mexico (Previous 51.9), Poland (Consensus 51.4, previous 50.8), Russia (Previous 48.9), South Africa (Previous 44.3), Taiwan (Previous 52.4), Turkey (Previous 50.1).
  • Indonesia | CPI (Jun): Previous 7.30%
  • Thailand | CPI YoY (Jun): Consensus 2.51%, previous 2.62%
  • Romania | MP Decision: We expect the NBR Board to keep its key policy rate on hold at 3.5%, in line with consensus. However, following recent press reports citing an official source, we think that a cut to minimum RRRs on FX - and possibly also on RON - bank liabilities is likely. In addition, we expect that the NBR will maintain a dovish bias in its communications and see significant risks of a rate cut later in Q3, especially if inflation continues to surprise to the downside.
  • Czech Republic | GDP YoY (1Q F): Previous 2.50%
  • Peru | CPI MoM (Jun): GS 0.10% (3.40% yoy), previous 0.23% (3.56% yoy)
  • Also interesting: [DM] Japan Vehicle Sales; Australia RPData House Prices and Commodity Index; South Korea Trade Balance [EM] Brazil Trade Balance; Mexico Remittances; Venezuela CPI; Indonesia Trade Balance; Mexico IMEF Non-Manuf. Index.

Wednesday, July 2

  • Events: Speech by RBA’s Dabelle; Press Conference by Germany’s Schaeuble.
  • United States | ADP Employment Change (Jun): GS 215K, consensus 205K, previous 179K
  • United States | Factory Orders (May): GS -0.40%, consensus -0.30%, previous 0.70%
  • United Kingdom | Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Jun): Consensus 59.8, previous 60
  • Canada | RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Previous 52.2
  • Singapore | Purchasing Managers Index (Jun): Previous 50.8
  • Poland | MP Decision: While we think the MPC will leave rates on hold (at 2.50%), in line with consensus, we think this meeting will bring a change in communication and the MPC’s bias, that is an end to the current forward rate guidance and a shift to a neutral stance. Afterward, we expect the MPC to remain on hold through 2015H1, but see downside risks to our rate view. Current forward pricing suggests markets expect between one and two 25bp cuts in the next six months.
  • Romania | GDP YoY (1Q F): Previous 3.80%
  • Brazil | Industrial Production YoY (May): GS -3.1%, previous -5.80%
  • Also interesting: [DM] Euro area PPI; UK Nationwide House Prices; Australia Trade Balance [EM] Romania Retail Sales.

Thursday, July 3

  • Events: Speech by RBA’s Stevens, plus speeches by Merkel, Draghi, Schaeuble and Weidmann at CDU event.
  • United States | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun): GS 210K, consensus 214K, previous 217K
  • United States | Unemployment Rate (Jun): GS 6.30%, consensus 6.30%, previous 6.30%
  • United States | Average Hourly Earnings (Jun): GS 0.20%, consensus 0.20%, previous 0.20%
  • United States | Trade Balance (May): GS -$43.0B, consensus -$45.0B, previous -$47.2B
  • United States | ISM Non-Manf. Composite (Jun): GS 56.0, consensus 56.1, previous 56.3
  • Euro area | MP Decision: We expect no change in policy (with the main refinancing rate at 0.15%, in line with consensus and previous).
  • Sweden | MP Decision: We expect the Riksbank to lower the repo rate by 25bp (to 0.50%, vs. previous 0.75%), in line with consensus.
  • DM | Services PMI (Jun): Euro area (F: GS 52.8, consensus 52.8, previous 52.8), France (F: GS 48.2, Previous 48.2), Germany (F: GS 54.8, consensus 54.8, previous 54.8), Italy (Previous 51.6), Japan (Previous 49.3), Spain (Previous 55.7), Sweden (Previous 58.5), UK (Consensus 58.1, previous 58.6), US (Previous 61.2).
  • DM | Composite PMI (Jun): Euro area (F: GS 52.8, previous 52.8), France (F: GS 48.0, previous 48.0), Germany (F: GS 54.2, previous 54.2), Italy (Previous 52.7), Japan (Previous 49.2), Spain (Previous 55.6), UK (GS 57.0, consensus 58.9, previous 59), US (Previous 61.1).
  • Australia | Building Approvals MoM (May): GS 1.00%, previous -5.60%
  • EM | Services PMI (Jun): Brazil (Previous 50.6), China (Previous 50.7), India (Previous 50.2), Russia (Previous 46.1)
  • EM | Composite PMI (Jun): Brazil (Previous 49.8), China (Previous 50.2), India (Previous 50.7), Russia (Previous 47.1)
  • Turkey | CPI YoY (Jun): GS 8.40%, consensus 8.80%, previous 9.66%
  • Also interesting: [DM] US Jobless Claims; Euro area Retail Sales; Canada Int’l Merchandise Trade; Australia Retail Sales [EM] China Non-Manufacturing PMI; Hungary Retail Sales and Trade Balance; Hong Kong Retail Sales and PMI; Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey.

Friday, July 4

  • Events: [US Holiday] Speech by RBA’s Ellis.
  • Germany | Factory Orders MoM (May): Consensus -1.00%, previous 3.10%
  • Sweden | Industrial Production MoM (May): Previous 3.00%
  • Hungary | Industrial Production WDA YoY (May P): Previous 10.10%
  • Philippines | CPI YoY (Jun): Consensus 4.60%, previous 4.50%
  • Colombia | Minutes from MP Decision
  • Also interesting: [DM] Retail PMI in France, Germany and Italy; Germany Construction PMI [EM] Mexico Consumer Confidence; Czech Republic Retail Sales; Malaysia Trade Balance; Colombia Exports and PPI

Finally in table format:

Source:  Goldman, Deutsche, BofA


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