Stocks Are Officially More Overvalued Than During The Last Bubble Peak

Over the weekend we showed that when it comes to fugding what one means by EPS (GAAP, non-GAAP, Pension accounting adjusted, etc), there is a virtually endless spectrum how one can make what is now effectively a 20x LTM P/E market appear as a "reasonably" valued 16.5x. But while fudging snapshot earnings is one thing, presenting an "apples-to-apples" valuation trend based on any one given methodology is something different, and provides a much needed continuum of (over) valuation. Which is why we go to the just released Q3 Guide to the Markets released by JPM Asset Management where we read the following:

  • Current forward S&P 500 P/E: 15.6x
  • Forward S&P 500 P/E on October 9, 2007: 15.2x

Needless to say, this assumes the current consensus for Non-GAAP earnings growth is accurate, which as we explained previously is driven almost entirely by "one-time charge" addbacks: addbacks which traditionally peak just before recessions strikes.

But all of the above is "noise" to quote Janet Yellen. One quick look at the chart below and it becomes immediately clear that the 190% surge in the S&P since the 2009 lows has been entirely on the $10 trillion (excluding China's $25 trillion in new financial debt) in central bank created liquidity.

And some additional equity valuation metrics now vs "then"