Despite the best efforts of The Fed, its apologists, and the commission-taking talking-heads to persuade the world that the US economy is picking up and set to reach escape velocity any minute... the fact is, the US economy (judged on data not fantasy) is hurting. Consensus expectations for 2014 US GDP growth have collapsed from over 3.00% to a mere 1.7% now. But what is more critical is the incessant bleating that data is picking up and suggests a 2nd half recovery... it doesn't. US Macro surprise data has been negative for over 21 weeks... the longest such spell of disappointment since Lehman.
US GDP expectations are collapsing (and this is 'pricing in' a H2 recovery bounce)...
But recent data says H2 is anything but positively surprising...
US Macro surprise data has been negative for over 21 weeks... the longest such spell of disappointment since Lehman.
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A glance at the chart above also shows something odd... US macro normally cycles back into the positive after dipping negative... as over-pessimism rotates to over-optimism - but this time the 'bounce' from over-pessimism failed in May.
US macro surprise data is considerably weaker than last year.