Consumer Confidence Explodes Higher To October 2007 Highs

On the heels of UMich confidence tumbling to 4-month lows, the Conference Board's consumer confidence exploded higher to the highest since October 2007. This is the 3rd monthly rise in a row and the biggest beat in 13 months all led by a spike in future expectations to its highest since Feb 2011.


3 months up in a row and highest since Oct 2007


Still quite a divergence between government and non-government surveys...


The last time the conference board confidence diverged this much from UMich confidence was June 2007 and that did not end well...


Does this look like a confident set of survey respondents...

Plan To Buy In Next 6 Months:

  • Car 11.6% vs 12.2% in June
  • Home 4.4% vs 5.4% in June (lowest since Feb 2013)
  • Major Appliance 46.5% vs 50.4% in June

But Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board:

“Consumer confidence increased for the third consecutive month and is now at its highest level since October 2007 (95.2).


Strong job growth helped boost consumers’ assessment of current conditions, while brighter short-term outlooks for the economy and jobs, and to a lesser extent personal income, drove the gain in expectations.


Recent improvements in consumer confidence, in particular expectations, suggest the recent strengthening in growth is likely to continue into the second half of this year.”

*  *  *

Odd that she would claim a brighter outlook for personal income... given the reality


Charts: Bloomberg