Brazil Crashes As Rousseff Regains Lead

Having rallied exuberantly on the back of hopes a reform-hungry hot-money-flow-encouraging Silva would take the Presidency in Brazil, a new poll this morning shows encumbent Rousseff back in the lead... and Brazilian markets are rapidly unwinding their exuberance. The Ibovespa is down 5% - its biggest drop in over 3 years. Brazil swap rates have spiked over 50bps and bonds bleeding as USDBRL jumps over 3 handles (to weakest since 2008). It appears just 48 hours after a strong rally on Friday, as markets 'efficiently' knew everything was great, Rousseff has realised a few well-placed, well-executed poll results and everything changes.

 

As Bloomberg reports,

Datafolha poll late Friday showing President Rousseff lead widening before Oct. 5 elections and amid broad USD strengthening.

 

Rousseff 4ppt ahead of Silva in runoff, up 2ppt vs previous poll; lead widens to 13ppt from 7ppt in 1st round: Datafolha

 

Record TV channel may release new Vox Populi poll, taken Sept. 27-28; last Vox poll showing Rousseff lead narrowing contrasts with Datafolha results

 

New polls from Datafolha and Ibope expected from tomorrow 

And this happens...

 

Individual stocks are getting crushed:

  • *PETROBRAS FALLS 9.2% IN SAO PAULO TRADING
  • *PETROBRAS EXTENDS DECLINE, FALLS MOST SINCE NOV. 2008
  • *BANCO DO BRASIL SHARES FALL 8.3% TO BRL27.35 IN SAO PAULO
  • *CYRELA FALLS 5.1% IN SAO PAULO TRADING