Is The Selling Overdone: WTI Momentum Hits Oversold For Only Third Time In Six Years

Another day, another attempt by the Saudis to topple Putin and kick the Kremlin where it hurts: the oily bottom line. And, as a result, another 2% drop in the price of West Texas Intermediate and various other crude grades around the globe.

But is the selling finally overdone, as some suggest happened to the S&P (as an alternative view to the PPT stepping in, the same PPT even Bloomberg is happy to bring up in casual conversation)? Well, according to the 1-year z-score of large speculator net position as % total open interest, is the lowest it has been since late 2011, early 2012, when the Fed was forced to bail out the world and Europe was crashing (as usual) into a deflationary vortex.

Also of note, per last week's COT report, large speculators decreased WTI crude oil longs to $26.1bn from $27.0bn notional.

But perhaps the clearest indication that not even the Saudi's can keep pushing the price of oil much further here is that from a purely technical standpoint, oil is so hated, that the daily RSI has reached oversold only for the 3rd time in six years!

So will someone (perhaps the Kremlin's various preferred Swiss energy trading companies out of Zug) finally make a move and try to trap the crude bears in the coming days? If so, the move could be violent if and when the short squeeze finally begins.