Chicago PMI Smashes Expectations, Jumps To 12-Month High

Despite plunging consumer spending, Chicago PMI surged to 66.2 (against expectations of 60.0), its highest in 12 months. This is above even the highest economist estimate and is a 4-sigma beat having been at one-year lows just 3 months ago.

 

 

Detailed breakdown...

  • Prices Paid fell compared to last month
  • New Orders rose compared to last month
  • Employment rose compared to last month
  • Inventory fell compared to last month
  • Supplier Deliveries fell compared to last month
  • Production rose compared to last month
  • Order Backlogs rose compared to last month
  • Business activity has been positve for 12 months over the past year.

This probably makes sense considering just a few days ago, that "other" PMI, Markit's, just printed at 3 months low, recording its biggest miss in 14 months:

But the world has been printing such great PMIs? And the US is the new engine of global growth? So how did US Manufacturing PMI just print 56.2, 3 month lows, and its biggest miss since August 2013? Following China and Europe's lead, US is latest PMI print with collapsing New Orders (57.1, down from 59.8, lowest since January), Output, and New Export Orders. This is the biggest 2-month drop in US PMI since May 2013.

 

 

 

As Markit explains...

 

“The flash PMI provides the first available glimpse into how manufacturing is faring at the national level at the start of the fourth quarter, and presents a mixed picture. The data will no doubt add to the view that policymakers should be in no rush to raise interest rates, with output and order book growth slowing and price pressures easing. 

 

A concern is that growth of new orders weakened sharply, which may translate into a further slowdown in coming months. The source of the slowdown appears to be weaker economic growth in key markets such as the Eurozone, China and other emerging markets, which has hit export performance. Many companies reported that domestic demand remains reassuringly strong."

 

So the narrative is alive - moar stimulus needed stat!!!!

 

Remember: when confused, baffle with BS