The Elephant Dragon In The Room: China's Hard Landing, In 21 Charts

Back in September, before the crude crash started in earnest driven far more by the relentless Chinese - and global - economic slowdown than anything OPEC may or may not have done (and whose output, as a reminder, hasn't changed in years and actually declined, indicating the plunge is demand not supply driven) we showed, with the help of a few clear charts, that China is gripped by the worst commodity, and economic, crash in ages.

Today we update where China stands on its path to a very hard landing. As the charts below show, what has been so far a controlled descent is rapidly sliding out of control as the elephant-dragon in the room can no longer be ignored.

China's NBS manufacturing PMI at 50.1 in December, down from 50.3 in November, the lowest in one and a half years.

 

Industrial production (IP) growth declined to 7.2% yoy in November from 7.7% yoy in October. Growth in power production decelerated to 0.6% yoy in November from 1.9% in October.

 

Output growth of electricity, steel, cement and oil refining fell to 0.6%, 1.2%, -4.0% and 5.5% respectively from 1.9%, 2.0%, -1.1% and 6.3% in October.

 

Headline year-to-date FAI growth ticked down to 15.8% yoy in November from 15.9% yoy in October, in line with consensus. Real ytd FAI growth could have edged down to 15.3% yoy in November from 15.4% yoy in October. On a monthly basis, nominal FAI growth increased to 14.9% yoy in November from 14.4% yoy in October.

 

Investment growth of local projects (88% of total FAI) was 16.2% yoy in November, unchanged from September. Investment growth of central government projects  dropped to -11.0% yoy in November from 0.2% yoy in October.

 

Real estate FAI growth edged down to 10.5% yoy in November from 10.9% yoy in October.

 

Retail sales growth quickened to 11.7% yoy in November from 11.5% in October. In real terms, it accelerated to 11.2% from 10.8%. It was buoyed by surging sales during the Single Day (11 November).

 

Growth in total auto sales in volume dropped to 2.3% in November from 2.8% in October.  Growth in passenger cars fell to 4.7% in November from 6.4% in October.

 

CPI and PPI inflation slowed o 1.4% and -2.7% yoy in Nov from 1.6% and -2.2% in Oct. Both CPI and PPI inflations surprised on the downside.

 

In mom terms (not seasonally adjusted), food prices decreased by -0.4% in November as the warmerthan- usual weather ensured ample supply of vegetables and fruits.

 

Otstanding Total Social Financing edged down to 15.3% in November from 15.4% in October (read: "China's Shadow Banking Grinds To A Halt As Bad Debt Surges Most In A Decade")

 

November export growth came in below expectations at 4.7% vs. 11.6% in October (market consensus 8.0%). Import growth surprised on the downside at -6.7% from 4.6% in October and (market consensus 3.8%).

 

Growth in processing imports, a leading indicator of processing exports, declined to 3.9% yoy in November from 24.0% in October. Low-value-added processing exports plummeted to 1.6% yoy from 9.1% in October.

 

In November, new export orders dropped further to 48.4 from 49.9, likely showing the impact of CNY appreciation in NEER terms in 2014. In the meantime, monthly export growth dropped to 4.7% from 11.6% in October.

 

Export growth to the US declined sharply to 2.6% yoy in November from 10.9% yoy in October, while export growth to Japan improved to - 5.8% yoy in November from - 8.1% in October. Export growth to the EU was largely unchanged at 4.1% yoy in November. Export growth to ASEAN slowed to 14.6% yoy in November from 18.0% in October.

Growth in imports from ASEAN declined to -8.2% in November from 24.5% in October. Meanwhile, import growth from EU dropped to -6.8% from 10.4% yoy in October.

 

In volume terms, growth in iron ore, copper and crude oil imports slumped to -13.4%, - 3.6% and 7.9% yoy in November from 17.0%, -2.4% and 18.0% yoy, respectively, in October. In value terms, growth in iron ore, copper and crude oil imports dropped to -46.2%, - 9.8% and -10.9% yoy in November from -24.7%, - 5.6% and 3.8% in October, respectively.

 

In yoy terms, the number of cities that saw new home prices down/flat/up changed to 68/0/2 in November, compared to 67/0/3 in October. Prices of new commodity residential properties for 70 medium-to-large-sized cities surveyed by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) declined by 0.59% mom in November, versus 0.83% in October.

 

On the demand side, the yoy growth in new home sales in floor space terms and value terms slumped to -13.3% and -7.9% yoy in November from - 3.4% and -3.1% yoy, respectively, in October.

 

New home starts growth plummeted to -33.8% yoy in November from 38.6% yoy in October. The volatility in the yoy growth rates of new starts was partly due to big swings in the data last year. Growth in residential property investment dropped to 5.5% in November from 9.5% yoy in October.

 

Credit conditions for property developers worsened in November. Growth in domestic loans, a main source of funding for property development, declined to -10.6% yoy in November from 3.3% yoy in October. Meanwhile, growth in pre-sale proceeds dropped to -20.3% yoy in November from -12.1% yoy in October partly due to deceleration in home sales growth.

 

And the punchline chart: the Shanghai Composite over the past 12 months.

Source: BofA, Bloomberg