It appears all the emerging/emerged economies of the world that are supposed to be the dynamic growth engines to lead the world to escape velocity are, well, not. Perhaps no better example is Brazil where hyper-growth expectations have disappeared into a black hole as business and consumer confidence collapsed this week to historical lows. As Goldman noted, "This poses major headwinds for private consumption and overall activity in the coming months."
As Goldman summarizes:
According to the monthly FGV Index, consumer confidence (CC) posted a large 4.9% mom sa decline in February, adding to the even larger 6.7% mom sa decline recorded in January. The overall consumer confidence index is now at its lowest level since the index started to be reported in September 2005. Furthermore, consumer confidence is currently 34% below the April 2012 peak and 26% below the average of the last five years.
The index measuring current conditions declined by a very large 7.0% mom sa in February (following a 8.6% mom sa decline in Jan) and the index measuring expectations declined 4.2% mom sa (-6.2% mom sa in Jan). The two sub-indices are now below the levels sees during the 2008-09 global economic and financial crisis and also at historical lows (for the series that started in September 2005).
In addition, business confidence in the construction sector declined 6.9% mom sa February (-27.3% yoy) adding to the 6.2% mom sa drop recorded in January. The headline index is now below the 100 threshold since October and at the lowest level since the index started to be reported (July 2010). The index measuring current conditions declined a very large 9.7% mom sa in February (-32.1% yoy) and the index measuring expectations declined 4.6% mom sa (-23.3% yoy).
Finally, as reported yesterday, business confidence in the industrial sector declining a sizeable 3.1% mom sa in February and is currently 22% below the January 2013 peak. The index measuring current conditions declined 1.7% mom sa in February and the index measuring expectations fell a large 4.8% mom sa.
Business and consumer confidence remains very depressed given the anticipation of policy tightening, rising inflation, rising taxes, rising interest rates, significant increases in utility and transportation tariffs, deteriorating labor market conditions, and more exigent credit conditions. This poses major headwinds for private consumption and overall activity in the coming months.
* * *
But it's not just Brazil...
And Russian even worse...