Q1 GDP Now Just 0.3% According To Fed Model

When we first exposed the world to The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasting model (just 2 weeks ago), expectations were for 1.2% growth in GDP in Q1. A week later it was cut in half to 0.6% as dismal data just poured on. And today, The Fed model now predicts another 50% cut in growth to just 0.3% in Q1, led by a near 20% collapse in non-residential investment.


March 3rd... +1.2%



March 12th... cut in half to +0.6%



And now... March 18th... another 50% cut in growth to a mere +0.3%

As The Atlanta Fed explains...

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 0.3 percent on March 17, down from 0.6 percent on March 12.


Following yesterday morning's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board that reported a 17 percent decline in oil and gas well drilling in February, the nowcast for first-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth fell from -13.3 percent to -19.6 percent.


And that decline is only getting started...


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In Gartman-esque terms, the trend for US economic growth appears to be from upper left to lower right... and accelerating