For the 3rd of the last 4 months, Durable Goods Orders fell and missed expectations (the worst run since Lehman). A 1.4% drop (against expectations of a 0.2% rise) is made worse by downward revisions of the last month's modest bounce. Across the board the numbers are a disaster - Ex-Trans fell 0.4%, Ex-defense fell 1%, Capital Goods Shipments fell 1.4% with capital goods ex-air dropping a stunning 7.6% YoY. Paging negative Q1 GDP print expectations...
- *U.S. FEBRUARY DURABLES ORDERS FALL 1.4%; EX-TRANS. DROP 0.4% (both big misses)
- *FEB. NON-DEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS EX-AIRCRAFT DROP 1.4% (big miss)
- *JANUARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS RISE 2%, REVISED FROM 2.8% GAIN (major downward revision)
- *U.S. FEBRUARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EX-DEFENSE DECREASE 1% (big miss)
- *DURABLE GOODS INVENTORIES IN U.S. INCREASED 0.3% IN FEBRUARY
New orders fell for Computer products, fabricated metals, machinery, transportation, motor vehicle, and a dramatic plunge in non-defense aircraft new orders and even larger (33.1%) collapse in defense aircraft orders.
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Just one thing... the "Field of Dreams" economy continues with motor vehicle inventories up 9.7% YoY... a sustained inventory build did not end well last time...
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Here is the slowmotion reversion of the US back to yet another recession, unless QE4 comes in in the last moment, as usual, and prevents the long overdue business cycle from re=emerging: the annual increase in Durables went form 4.7% to 0.6%. Next month we go negative.
The trend in Durables ex-Transports is just as bad:
Finally, who could have possibly imagined that with oil "half off" (still, with the China hard landing now raging), CapEx would be on the verge of going negative.