8 Charts That Prove The US Is Already In A Recession

The evidence is mounting...

While broadly-speaking, both 'hard' and 'soft' macro data has disappointed, as we noted previously, the scale of those 'missed expectations' is stunning - worst since Lehman. While this is blamed on weather, the fact is that America had 30% less snow this year than last and still, as the following charts strongly suggest, the YoY drops are on a scale that screams "recession"...

 

US Macro Data has surprised to the downside on a scale not seen since Lehman...

 

Retail Sales are weak - extremely weak. Retail Sales have not dropped this much YoY outside of a recession...

 

And if Retail Sales are weak, then Wholesalers are seeing sales plunge at a pace not seen outside of recession...

 

Which means Factory Orders are collapsing at a pace only seen in recession...

 

And Durable Goods New Orders are negative YoY once again - strongly indicative of a recessionary environment...

... oh, and core capital goods orders as well.

*  *  *

The last time durable goods orders fell this much, The Fed launched QE3 - indicating clearly why they desperately want to raise rates imminently... in order to have some non-ZIRP/NIRP ammo when the next recession hits.

*  *  *

And finally - coming full circle - it appears everyone is scrambling for credit to afford to maintain even a semblance of living standards (and lift retail sales) but "rejections" of credit requests have never - ever - been higher...

 

So the credit available to goose retail sales, which will goose wholesale sales which will drive factory orders... is no longer available to every muppet with a 500 FICO (old or new version) Score!!

*  *  *

But apart from that, given that US equities are at record highs, everything must be great in the US economy.

And just in case you figured that if domestic credit won't goose the economy, Chinese and Japanese stimulus means the rest of the world will save us... nope!! Export growth is now negative... as seen in the last 2 recessions.

 

*  *  *

And that's why America went to war...