Worst Drop In Core Durable Goods Since December 2012

Having missed expectations for 5 of the last 7 months, Durable Goods New Orders jumped 4% MoM in March - the biggest jump since the July Boeing aberration all driven by a 112% surge in defense Aircraft new orders. Not surprisingly the Department of Commerce tried to pull this trick off in late 2007 in a last gasp desperate attempt to mask the arrival of the US recession then.

Durable Goods New Orders (ex-Transports) fell 0.2% MoM (missing expectations of a 0.3% rise) for the biggest YoY drop since 2012, some -1/9%, and under the covers it is ugly - Capital Goods New Orders non-defense, ex-aircraft have now fallen for 7 straight months, missing expectatons dramatically (-0.5% vs +0.3% exp.). These numbers have never fallen for this long a period without a recession.

 

Durable Goods New Orders Ex-Transports... never fallen for this long witghout a recession...

 

 

and Capitakl Goods New Orders Ex Defense/Aircraft dropped yet another month...

 

Meanwhile, one can now add core durable goods to factory orders, wholesale sales, export growth, credit rejection and control retail sales as declining year over year.

 

... oh, and core capital goods orders as well.

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