The Last Time Initial Jobless Claims Were This Low Was The Peak Of The Dot-Com Bubble

Initial jobless claims have been worse than expected for the last 2 weeks but remained below the magical 300k level, so it was only appropriate that this week all the great economic news of late - record plunge in US macro disappointments and a dismal 0.2% GDP print - would be met with the lowest claims print in 15 years. At 262k (against a 290k expectation), initial claims has only been lower once - the week of April 14th 2000 - which just happened to mark the top of the Dot-Com bubble. While this is great news, we do note that a rolling average of Texas Jobless claims shows the improving trend has stalled.

 

Outlier or new trend?

 

 

But a rolling average of Texas Jobless claims shows the improving trend has stalled...

 

Perhaps most worrying is this... the last time we were this low - only once in history, marked the week of the top of the DotCom bubble in 2000....

 

Charts: Bloomberg