Quickly looking at the potential market moving events this week, US payrolls on Friday will be the clear focus. In terms of expectations, our US colleagues are expecting a +225k print which matches the current Bloomberg consensus, while they expect the unemployment rate to drop one-tenth to 5.4%. Elsewhere, Thursday’s UK Election will be closely followed while Greece will once again be front and center.
We kick off this morning in Europe with the final April manufacturing PMI readings for the Euro area, Germany and France. The May Sentix investor confidence reading for the Euro area is also due today also. Over in the US this afternoon, focus will be on the ISM New York followed closed by factory orders data.
Moving to Tuesday, the European Commission Economic Forecasts will be of some interest in the morning session, while data wise it’s fairly quiet in Europe with just Euro-area PPI due. It’s busier in the US however, with trade data, the IBD/TIPP economic optimism survey as well as the final April composite and services PMI’s and preliminary ISM non-manufacturing print due.
Wednesday’s early attention will be on the April services and composite PMI readings which are scheduled for China (preliminary) as well as the UK (preliminary), Euro-area, Germany and France (all final). March retail sales for the Euro-area will also be of some focus. Over in the US on Wednesday, the April ADP employment change print will be an important prelude for Friday, while we are also due nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs. It’s fairly quiet data-wise on Thursday, with just French industrial and manufacturing production and German factory orders scheduled, however much focus will be on the UK General Election.
We’ve got more employment data due in the US on Thursday meanwhile with Challenger job cuts and initial jobless claims readings expected as well as consumer credit. It’s a busy end to the week on Friday with industrial production and trade data expected for Germany, as well trade data for the UK due.
Friday’s focus in the US will of course be on the April payrolls. The usual employment associated readings are also due on Friday including the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. Aside from the data, earnings season continues with 86 S&P 500 companies due and 108 Euro Stoxx companies. Fedspeak will of course warrant much attention with Evans, Williams, George, Kocherlakota and Lockhart expected to speak while the Fed’s Yellen and IMF’s Lagarde are due to speak on Wednesday.
The key events in table format:
Finally, here is a detail breakdown from Goldman of all global events in the next 5 days:
In DMs, highlights of next week include US Trade Balance, Unemployment and Nonfarm Payrolls; MP Decision in Australia and Norway; Eurozone IP; DM Manufacturing PMI.
- [Monday] DM Manufacturing PMI.
- [Tuesday] US Trade Balance; Australia MP Decision.
- [Wednesday] US ADP Employment; DM Composite and Services PMI.
- [Thursday] Norway MP Decision.
- [Friday] US Unemployment and Nonfarm Payrolls; Eurozone IP.
In EMs, highlights of next week include MP Decision in Malaysia, Czech Republic, Poland and Romania; Minutes in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Hungary; China Trade; EM Manufacturing PMI.
- [Monday] EM Manufacturing PMI; Chile Minutes.
- [Tuesday] Indonesia GDP and Chile Economic Activity.
- [Wednesday] EM Composite and Services PMI; Hungary Minutes; MP Decision in Poland and Romania; Russia CPI.
- [Thursday] MP Decision in Malaysia and Czech Republic, Brazil Minutes.
- [Friday] China Trade; Colombia Minutes.
Monday, May 4
- Events: Speeches by ECB's Costa, Fed's Evans.
DMs | Manufacturing PMI (Apr F): Eurozone (GS 51.9, consensus 51.9, previous 51.9), France (GS 48.4, consensus 48.4, previous 48.4), Germany (GS 51.9, consensus 51.9, previous 51.9), Italy (consensus 53.3, previous 53.3), Norway (consensus 49.5, previous 48.8), Sweden (consensus 53, previous 54.1), Spain (consensus 54.5, previous 54.3)
- Singapore | [MAP 2] Purchasing Managers Index (Apr): Previous 49.6
- EMs | Manufacturing PMI (Apr F): China (consensus 49.4, previous 49.2), India (previous 52.1), Indonesia (previous 46.4), South Korea (previous 49.2), Taiwan (previous 51), Czech Republic (consensus 55.8, previous 56.1), Hungary (previous 55.6), Poland (consensus 54.6, previous 54.8), Turkey (previous 48), Brazil (previous 46.2), Mexico (previous 53.8)
- Indonesia | CPI YoY (Apr): GS 6.7%, consensus 6.80% (0.38% nsa mom), previous 6.38% (0.17% nsa mom)
- Turkey | CPI YoY (Apr): GS 7.0%, consensus 7.60% (1.30% mom), previous 7.61% (1.19% mom)
- South Africa | [MAP 5] Kagiso Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Consensus 47.9, previous 47.9
- Chile | Minutes from MP Decision: In this meeting, the central bank left the policy rate unchanged for the sixth consecutive time. We expect the minutes to show that the April decision was unanimous once again. In addition, the tone of the document should confirm the authorities remain fairly neutral with regards to the short-term outlook for monetary policy, consistent with the language in the post-meeting communique.
- Mexico | [MAP 4] Gross Fixed Investment (Feb): GS 2.0%, consensus 2.80%, previous 7.30%
- Also interesting: [DM] US ISM New York; Norway Unemployment; Denmark PMI Survey; Australia Building Approvals, ANZ Job Advertisements and TD Securities Inflation; New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price [EM] South Korea CA; Trade Balance in Hungary and Brazil; Mexico Remittances and IMEF Manufacturing Index.
Tuesday, May 5
- Events: European Commission Economic Forecasts, Speeches by Fed's Kocherlakota and Bank of Canada's Wilkins.
- United States | [MAP 2] Trade Balance (Mar): GS -$45.0B, consensus -$39.8B, previous -$35.4B
- United States | Markit US Composite PMI (Apr F): Previous 57.4
- United States | Markit US Services PMI (Apr F): Previous 57.8
- United States | ISM Non-Manf. Composite (Apr): GS 55.8, consensus 56.2, previous 56.5
- Sweden | Industrial Production MoM (Mar): Consensus 0.40% (-3.90% nsa yoy), previous -0.10%
- Australia | MP Decision: We expect a 25bp cut to 2.00%, in line with consensus. We see a solid case for a -25bp rate cut given a likely downgrade to the RBA’s own growth forecasts later in the week, confirmation of still benign inflationary pressures in last week’s 1Q2015 CPI report, relatively low commodity prices, and a still elevated AUD. That said, we acknowledge that a speech by the RBA Governor last week seemed to imply a degree of reluctance to continue the easing cycle given related risks over the long run – including in the property market. As a result, there is a material risk that the RBA defers the next step lower in rates – possibly until there is greater visibility on fiscal policy settings following the 12 May Budget. Either way, we have high conviction that rates will move lower again in the coming months – even if the exact timing of the next move is somewhat less clear.
- Indonesia | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (1Q): GS 5.1%, consensus 4.92%, previous 5.01%
- Philippines | CPI YoY (Apr): Consensus 2.40% (0.20% nsa mom), previous 2.40% (-0.10% mom)
- Taiwan | CPI YoY (Apr): GS -0.5%, consensus -0.70%, previous -0.61%
- Russia | HSBC Russia Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Consensus 48.3, previous 48.1
- Chile | [MAP 5] Economic Activity YoY (Mar): GS 0.8%, consensus 1.00% (-0.80% mom), previous 2.00% (-0.60% mom)
- Colombia | CPI YoY (Apr): GS 4.44% (0.35% mom), consensus 4.45% (0.35% mom), previous 4.56% (0.59% mom)
- Also interesting: [DM] European PPI; France Budget Balance; UK Construction PMI; Australia Trade Balance [EM] Hong Kong Retail Sales; Romania PPI; South Africa Unemployment; Colombia Exports.
Wednesday, May 6
- Events: Speeches by Fed's Yellen, George and Lockhart and IMF's Lagarde.
- United States | [MAP 3] ADP Employment Change (Apr): GS 170K, consensus 185K, previous 189K
- United States | Nonfarm Productivity (1Q P): GS -2.0%, consensus -1.60%, previous -2.20%
- United States | Unit Labor Costs (1Q P): GS 5.0%, consensus 4.00%, previous 4.10%
- DMs | Composite PMI (Apr): Eurozone (GS 53.5, consensus 53.5, previous 53.5), France (GS 50.2, previous 50.2), Germany (GS 54.2, consensus 54.2, previous 54.2), Italy (previous 52.4), Spain (previous 56.9), United Kingdom (previous 58.8)
- DMs | Services PMI (Apr): Eurozone (GS 53.7, consensus 53.7, previous 53.7), France (GS 50.8, consensus 50.8, previous 50.8), Germany (GS 54.4, consensus 54.4, previous 54.4), Italy (consensus 51.9, previous 51.6); Spain (previous 57.3), Sweden (previous 57.2), United Kingdom (consensus 58.6, previous 58.9)
- EMs | Composite PMI (Apr): China (previous 51.8), India (previous 53.2), Brazil (previous 47)
- EMs | Services PMI (Apr): China (previous 52.3), India (previous 53), Brazil (previous 47.9)
- Hungary | Minutes from MP Decision
- Poland | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold at 1.50%, in line with consensus, and for the NBP to repeat the message from the previous meeting in April, when the MPC reaffirmed its March decision to finish the easing cycle. The data released in the meantime are unlikely to change the MPC’s outlook. If anything, strong data on industrial production could only strengthen the MPC’s resolve not to cut further in face of a solid recovery. Even the strong Zloty, which continued to gain against the Euro as the MPC repeated its plans to keep rates on hold, is unlikely to convince the MPC to change its tone in any way.
- Romania | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold at 2.00%, in line with consensus. In addition to keeping the repo rate at 2.0%, we also expect it to keep the rate corridor unchanged at +/-175bp around the repo rate. At this meeting, the NBR Board will know the latest macro forecasts.
- Russia | CPI YoY (Apr): GS 16.5% (0.6% mom), consensus 16.70% (0.80% mom), previous 16.90% (1.20% mom)
- Ukraine | CPI YoY (Apr): Consensus 53.00% (7.80% mom), previous 45.80% (10.80% mom)
- Brazil | [MAP 4] Industrial Production YoY (Mar): GS (-0.6% mom), consensus -3.00%, previous -9.10%
- Also interesting: [DM] US MBA Mortgage Applications; Eurozone Retail Sales; Australia Retail Sales; New Zealand Unemployment [EM] Hong Kong PMI; South Africa PMI; Retail Sales in Czech Republic and Hungary.
Thursday, May 7
- Events: UK General Election, Speech by ECB's Mersch.
- France | Industrial Production YoY (Mar): Consensus 1.20% (0.00% mom), previous 0.60% (0.00% mom)
- Norway | MP Decision: We expect a 25bp cut to 1.00%.
- Malaysia MP Decision: We expect rates on hold at 3.25%, in line with consensus. We expect inflation to pick up following the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax earlier this month. We maintain our view that the economy will likely grow within the BNM’s forecast of 4.5% to 5.5% this year and inflation between 2% to 3%.
- Czech Republic | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold at 0.05%, in line with consensus. We also expect the CNB Board to leave the parameters of monetary policy broadly unchanged. Specifically, we expect the CNB to keep the current FX floor unchanged at EUR/CZK at 27.0 or weaker and repeat that the Bank plans to keep easy monetary conditions for a while.
- Czech Republic | [MAP 4] Industrial Output YoY (Mar): Consensus 6.30%, previous 4.50%
- Hungary | [MAP 4] Industrial Production WDA YoY (Mar): Previous 5.80% (-0.30% sa mom)
- Brazil | Minutes from MP Decision: At that meeting the Copom validated the broad market consensus by hiking the Selic policy rate by another +50bp, to 13.25%, in a unanimous decision. That was the fourth consecutive 50bp rate hike following the initial October 29 +25bp hike. In the minutes we will be looking for explicit language and/or hints on how the central bank sees the balance of risks to inflation and growth. Specifically, given the recent labor market deterioration we will be looking if the central bank preserves the previous reference that “despite real wage increases that have been more aligned with estimated labor productivity gains the wage dynamics are still originating cost-push pressures on inflation.” We will also be looking for potentially more dovish/soft language on the outlook for real activity.
- Mexico | CPI YoY (Apr): GS 3.11% (-0.21% mom), consensus 3.10% (-0.25% mom), previous 3.14% (0.41% mom)
- Also interesting: [DM] US Consumer Credit and Initial Jobless and Continuing Claims; Canada Building Permits; France Trade Balance; Retail PMI in France and Italy; Germany Factory Orders; Japan Services and Composite PMI; Australia Unemployment [EM] Trade Balance in Malaysia, Taiwan and Chile; Russia Services and Composite PMI; Mexico Vehicle Domestic Sales and Vehicle Exports AMIA
Friday, May 8
- Events: RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, Speech by ECB's Constancio.
- United States | [MAP 5] Unemployment Rate (Apr): GS 5.4%, consensus 5.40%, previous 5.50%
- United States | [MAP 5] Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr): GS 230K, consensus 225K, previous 126K
- United States | Change in Private Payrolls (Apr): GS 230K, consensus 220K, previous 129K
- United States | Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Apr): GS 0.2%, consensus 0.20% (2.30% yoy), previous 0.30% (2.10% yoy)
- Germany | Industrial Production WDA YoY (Mar): Consensus 0.40% (0.40% mom), previous -0.30% (0.20% mom)
- Denmark | Industrial Production MoM (Mar): Consensus 0.20%, previous 0.80%
- Italy | Industrial Production NSA YoY (Mar): Consensus (0.30% mom), previous -0.20% (0.60% mom)
- Norway | Industrial Production MoM (Mar): Previous 2.60%
- Spain | Industrial Output SA YoY (Mar): Previous 0.60%
- Switzerland | Unemployment Rate (Apr): Consensus 3.30%, previous 3.40%
- Switzerland | CPI EU Harmonized YoY (Apr): Consensus -0.50% (0.10% mom), previous -0.50% (0.50% mom)
- China | Trade Balance (Apr): Consensus $34.25B, previous $3.08B
- Hungary | CPI YoY(Apr): GS -0.8%, previous -0.6% (0.6% mom)
- Turkey | Industrial Production YoY (Mar): Consensus 0.70% (1.40% mom), previous 1.00% (1.70% mom)
- Brazil | IBGE Inflation IPCA YoY (Apr): GS 8.20% (0.74% mom), consensus 8.25% (0.76% mom), previous 8.13% (1.32% mom)
- Chile | CPI YoY (Apr): GS 3.8% (0.3% mom), consensus 3.90% (0.30% mom), previous 4.20% (0.60% mom)
- Colombia | Minutes from MP Decision
- Also interesting: [DM] US Wholesale Inventories; Canada Housing Starts and Unemployment Rate; Trade Balance in Germany and the UK [EM] Romania Industrial Sales; Mexico Consumer Confidence
Source: DB, BofA, GS