The 'Lumbering' US Economy

While Crude and Copper get all the glory, the fact is, as we have detailed previously, Lumber prices are the most correlated with economic activity (ISM and GDP) of all industrial commodities. That is quickly becoming a major problem for the "Q1 was weather and now we get the epic bounceback" narrative writers.

Now where have seen this before?

 

Or this...

 

And for good measure, builder remain oblivious to their key raw material's diminished demand (or mal-invested supply)...

 

It's just a matter of time, as we detailed previously.

But consensus sell-side economist dreams remain oblivious...

 

But perhaps it's time to start paying attention to Lumber and The Atlanta Fed model...

 

Charts: @Not_Jim_Cramer