US Retail Sales Hint At Recession, Weakest Since Financial Crisis

Despite bouncing back last month at the fastest pace in a year, April just printed the slowest YoY growth since Nov09 at just 0.9% (retail sales has still missed expectations for 4 of the last 5 months). Against expectations of a 0.2% MoM rise in April (considerably slower than the 0.9% pop in March), Retail Sales missed with a 0.0% change. Ex-Auto and Gas MoM also missed with a mere 0.1% gain (aghainst +0.5% exp.) but it was the control group that saw the biggest miss, printing 0.0% (against hopeful expectations of a 0.5% gain). There was widespresd weakness with outright declines in autos, furniture, gas, food, electronics (AAPL hangover), and general merchandise.

What is curious is that moments ahead of the release, sellsiders were overslling the retail print to appear far more important than it is, in hopes for a big beat. CRT strategist David Ader says in note that "Retail Sales is, oddly, perhaps more important than NFP..."

And now we get the talking down.

MoM saw a modest reveision in march save it from 5 monthly misses in a row:

 

Year-over-Year retail sales growth slowest since July 2008's slump:

 

Worse, non-seasonally adjusted retail sales which however are perfectly relevant on a Y/Y basis as the same seasonal adjustment takes place every 12 months, posted their first decline since the Great Recession.

 

And the Control Group shows no signsof improvment post-weather or post-gas savings...

 

The Breakdown is particularly ugly...

 

Oh well: it rained in the spring, unexpectedly, preventing Americans from spending trillions in cash they don't have on stuff they don't need. Oh, and don't forget Easter came around this year. 

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