As the economic calendar slowly picks up following the NFP lull, we are looking at a busy week both globally and in the US, where an army of Fed speakers culminates with a Yellen speech on Friday at 1pm in Rhode Island.
As DB notes, the start to the week is rather quiet with just May NAHB housing market index in the US.
Tuesday however brings the final April CPI reading for the Euro area as well as trade data for the region and also the all-important German ZEW survey for May. In the UK meanwhile, the April CPI/RPI/PPI readings will be important. In the US on Tuesday, we’ve got April housing starts and building permits due up.
We kick Wednesday morning off in Japan where we get the preliminary Q1 GDP reading. This will be followed up in the European session with German PPI and UK Bank of England minutes. Of course the focus for markets on Wednesday will be the release of the FOMC minutes from the April 29th meeting due out at 2pm Eastern.
Thursday is flash PMI day where we get the May manufacturing readings for China and Japan first of all, followed by the manufacturing, services and composite readings for the Euro-area and also regionally in Germany and France. Consumer confidence for the Euro area is also due while we get more Central Bank activity as the ECB publishes the minutes from the April 15th meeting. As well as this, we’ll get April retail sales for the UK. We’ll also get the May flash manufacturing PMI in the US on Thursday along with the Chicago Fed national activity index, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, existing home sales, leading index and finally the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index.
It’s no less quiet as we turn to Friday. We start in China with the Conference Board April leading economic index before we turn over to the European session where we get the final Q1 GDP print out of Germany, the May German IFO reading, French business and manufacturing confidence and UK public sector net borrowing data. Friday afternoon will bring one of the key releases of the week when we get US CPI for April with the market currently expecting a further fall into deflation at the headline (-0.2% yoy from -0.1% previously) and a modest drop in the core (+1.7% yoy from +1.8% previously). Fedspeak wise, we’ve got Evans and Williams due up.
And saving the best in central planning for last, on Friday Federal Chair Janet Yellen will be making a visit to Rhode Island this spring. Jack Reed and Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce officials announced Sunday that Yellen will be speaking at the Chamber’s annual Economic Outlook Luncheon on May 22. As Goldman notes, "We will look in particular for commentary on the inflation outlook and the current assessment of the growth outlook in light of disappointing Q1 data. There will not be Q&A."
BofA conveniently summarizes this as follows:
The full breakdown of all detailed weekly events comes from Goldman:
In DMs, highlights of next week include US Minutes, Philly Fed and CPI; Japan MP Decision; Minutes in the UK and Australia; CPI in Eurozone and UK; GDP in Japan and Germany.
- [Monday] Japan Tertiary Industry Index and Machine Orders.
- [Tuesday] CPI in Eurozone and UK; Australia Minutes.
- [Wednesday] US Minutes; UK Minutes; Japan GDP.
- [Thursday] US Philly Fed; Eurozone Consumer Confidence; DM Flash PMIs.
- [Friday] US CPI; Japan MP Decision; Germany GDP.
In EMs, highlights of next week include MP Decisions in Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, Turkey and Colombia; Poland Minutes; GDP in Thailand, Chile, Mexico, and Peru.
- [Monday] GDP in Thailand and Chile.
- [Tuesday] MP Decisions in Indonesia and Nigeria.
- [Wednesday] Turkey MP Decision; Peru GDP.
- [Thursday] Poland Minutes; South Africa MP Decision; Mexico GDP.
- [Friday] Colombia MP Decision.
Monday, May 18
- Events: Speech by Fed’s Evans, RBA’s Lowe, ECB’s Mersch, BoJ’s Maeda and Riksbank’s Ingves.
- United States | [MAP 1] NAHB Housing Market Index (May): Consensus 56, previous 56
- Japan | [MAP 4] Tertiary Industry Index MoM (Mar): Consensus -0.30%, previous 0.30%
- Japan | [MAP 3] Machine Orders MoM (Mar): GS 0.5%, consensus 2.20%, previous -0.40%
- Thailand | GDP YoY (1Q): GS 2.50%, consensus 3.40% (-0.70% sa qoq), previous 2.30% (1.70% sa qoq)
- Ukraine | Industrial Production YoY (Apr): Consensus -20.30% (-1.00% mom), previous -21.10% (9.60% mom)
- Chile | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (1Q): GS 2.20% (0.90% qoq), consensus 2.19% (0.90% qoq), previous 1.80% (0.90% qoq)
- Also interesting: [DM] Italy Trade Balance; United Kingdom Rightmove House Prices; Japan IP and Capacity Utilization; Singapore Exports [EM] China Non-oil Domestic Exports; Argentina Unemployment; Chile CA.
Tuesday, May 19
- Events: Speeches by BoC’s Poloz, Riksbank’s Ingves, Reserve Bank of India’s Rajan, and IMF’s Lagarde; Mexico Central Bank Releases Inflation Report.
- United States | Housing Starts MoM (Apr): GS 9.5%, consensus 10.20%, previous 2.00%
- Eurozone | CPI YoY (Apr F): Consensus 0.00% (1.10% mom), previous (r) -0.10%
- United Kingdom | CPI YoY (Apr): GS -0.10%, consensus 0.00% (0.40% mom), previous 0.00% (0.20% mom)
- Australia | Minutes from MP Decision: The RBA cut the cash rate by 25bpts at its May Board meeting as was widely expected, but the market interpreted the omission of an explicit easing bias in a relatively hawkish light (reflected in an immediate US40c rally in the AUD). However, as we noted at the time, we thought the market overreacted somewhat – given that in months where the RBA cuts rates, the brief statement attending the decision will typically reflect on that decision itself, rather than provide a great deal of forward guidance.
- Indonesia | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (reference rate at 7.5%), in line with consensus. While recent economic data have been mixed – consumer confidence and motorcycle sales were soft, but retail sales were solid – headline inflation picked up to 6.8% in April, above BI's inflation target of 3-5%. We believe elevated inflation will be the key consideration as well as the recent weakness of the IDR, motivating an unchanged decision – a sentiment echoed by the BI governor in his latest speech. However, given weaker-than expected Q1 GDP growth and recent comments by the Vice President calling for monetary easing, we cannot rule out the possibility of a rate cut of 25bps by BI as early as the next meeting. We find that under the current monetary policy regime, BI puts greater emphasis on targeting the output gap, which could also argue for monetary policy easing.
- Nigeria | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (at 13.00%), in line with consensus. While the pressure on the Naira is abating, judged by the NDF implied 1-year rate around 15% (see Exhibit 1), we see little upside in hiking the MPR (currently at 13%) or tightening further the CRR (currently at 20% for private-sector deposits and 75% for public sector deposits). In addition, headline inflation (8.7%yoy in April) remains driven by food inflation (9.5%yoy) while core stays moderate (7.7%yoy).
- Also interesting: [DM] US Building Permits; Eurozone Trade Balance; Germany ZEW Survey Expectations; United Kingdom RPI and ONS House Price [EM] Hong Kong Unemployment and Composite Interest Rate; Korea PPI; Philippines BoP Overall; Poland Gross Average Wages; South Africa Unemployment; Mexico Quarterly Inflation Report.
Wednesday, May 20
- Events: Speeches by Fed’s Evans, RBA’s Lowe and Riksbank’s Ingves.
- United States | Minutes from MP Decision: The April FOMC statement was roughly in line with expectations, with no significant change to the policy language. In the minutes, we will be watching for any discussion of (1) the timing of liftoff, (2) what would lead the Committee to be "reasonably confident" that inflation will move back to its 2% target over the medium term, (3) the weakness in exports and US growth, (4) labor market slack and the lowered estimate of long-run unemployment in the SEP, and (5) the mechanics of liftoff.
- Norway | GDP Mainland QoQ (1Q): GS 0.40%, previous 0.50%
- United Kingdom | Minutes from MP Decision
- Japan | GDP Annualized SA QoQ (1Q P): GS 1.40%, consensus 1.60%, previous 1.50%
- Israel | Manufacturing Production MoM (Mar): Previous 2.50%
- Poland | [MAP 3] Sold Industrial Output YoY (Apr): Consensus 5.50% (-4.90% mom), previous 8.80% (13.40% mom)
- South Africa | CPI YoY (Apr): GS 4.40%, consensus 4.60% (1.00% mom), previous 4.00% (1.40% mom)
- Turkey | MP Decision: We expect the Committee to leave all policy rates unchanged – i.e. the O/N lending rate at 10.75%, the base rate (1-week repo) at 7.50% and the O/N borrowing rate at 7.25%. We also do not expect any changes to the key parameters of the CBRT’s macro-prudential policy tools. The MPC, however, will likely retain a cautious language, emphasising the uncertainty created by volatile food/energy prices and the timing and pace of Fed policy normalisation. We expect the Committee to leave the key hawkish phrase in the policy statement intact, noting explicitly that “…cautious monetary policy stance will be maintained by keeping a flat yield curve, until there is a significant improvement in the inflation outlook”.
- Peru | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (1Q): GS 1.70%, previous 1.00%
- Also interesting: [DM] US MBA Mortgage Applications; Eurozone Construction Output; Spain Trade Balance; Sweden Unemployment; Japan Leading and Coincident Indexes; Australia Westpac Consumer Conf [EM] Taiwan Export Orders and CA; Retail Sales in Poland and South Africa.
Thursday, May 21
- Events: Speeches by ECB’s Draghi, Fed’s Fischer, Fed’s Williams and RBA’s Edey; ECB account of the monetary policy meeting.
- United States | [MAP 4] Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (May): GS 7.0, consensus 8, previous 7.5
- United States | [MAP 2] Existing Home Sales (Apr): Consensus 5.22M, previous 5.19M
- Eurozone | [MAP 4] Consumer Confidence (May A): Previous -4.6
- DMs | Manufacturing PMI (May P): US (Consensus 54.5, previous 54.1), Eurozone (GS 53.8, consensus 51.8, previous 52), France (Previous 48), Germany (Consensus 52, previous 52.1), Japan (Previous 49.9)
- China | HSBC China Manufacturing PMI (May P): GS 48.9, previous 48.9
- Hong Kong | CPI Composite YoY (Apr): Consensus 4.40%, previous 4.50%
- Poland | Minutes from MP Decision
- South Africa | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (repo rate at 5.75%), in line with consensus. Governor Kganyago recently indicated that interest rates would not be raised if there was a temporary breach of the 6% upper-bound of the inflation target range. Hence, the focus remains on the inflation trajectory which will, in turn, inform the timing of the next hike (we have 25bp in September).
- Mexico | [MAP 5] GDP NSA YoY (1Q): GS 2.30%, previous 2.60% (0.70% sa qoq)
- Mexico | [MAP 5] Economic Activity IGAE YoY (Mar): GS 2.30%, previous 2.27%
- Also interesting: [DM] US Initial Jobless and Continuing Claims; US Leading Index, Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity and Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index; Eurozone Services and Composite Flash PMIs; Eurozone CA; Denmark Consumer Confidence; UK Retail Sales and CBI Trends Total Orders; Switzerland M3; Japan All Industry Activity Index; Australia RBA FX Transactions Market; New Zealand ANZ Job Advertisements [EM] Turkey Consumer Confidence; Brazil Unemployment and IBC-BR Monthly Real GDP; Colombia Trade Balance.
Friday, May 22
- Events: Speech by BoJ’s Kuroda; Peru Central Bank Inflation Report.
- United States | CPI YoY (Apr): GS (0.1% mom), consensus -0.20% (0.10% mom), previous -0.10% (0.20% mom)
- United States | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Apr): GS (0.19% mom), consensus 1.70% (0.20% mom), previous 1.80% (0.20% mom)
- Canada | CPI Core YoY (Apr): Previous 2.40% (0.60% mom)
- Germany | GDP WDA YoY (1Q F): Previous 1.00% (0.30% sa qoq)
- Japan | MP Decision: The BOJ rolled back the timing for achieving 2% inflation to “around the first half of fiscal 2016” in the Outlook Report published on April 30. We expect the BOJ to stay on hold at the May 21-22 meeting. The next BOJ easing is likely to be October-end, when the BOJ releases its next Outlook Report.
- Malaysia | CPI YoY (Apr): Previous 0.90%
- Taiwan | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (1Q F): Consensus 3.50%, previous 3.46%
- Brazil | IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 YoY (May): GS 8.24% (0.60% mom), previous 8.22% (1.07% mom)
- Colombia | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (Overnight Lending Rate at 4.5%, in line with consensus), and for the directors to reiterate a broadly neutral bias, suggesting the central bank is unlikely to alter its policy stance in the very near term.
- Also interesting: [DM] Canada Retail Sales; France Manufacturing Confidence; Germany IFO Business Climate; Italy Retail Sales; UK Public Sector Net Borrowing; New Zealand ANZ Consumer Confidence [EM] Philippines Overseas Remittances; Taiwan Unemployment; Russia Retail Sales, Investment Statistics, Real Average Wages and Unemployment; Argentina Trade Balance; Mexico INPC Core and Headline Inflation; Peru Quarterly Inflation Report.
Source: BofA, GS, DB