Chicago Fed Contracts For 4th Month In A Row As Initial Jobless Claims Hover Near 40 Year Lows

Initial claims rose very modestly this week but the smoother 4-week average hit fresh cycle lows at 271k - just shy of the lowest level since 1973. Continuing claims also fell to new cycle lows at their lowest since 2000. It appears, as we have noted previously, that peak job-related cost-cutting has been achieved. However, it's not all unicorns and ponies... as Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator printed a disappointing -0.15, the 4th month in a row of contraction.

Jobless data says everything is awesome...

 

 

But Chicago Fed says all is not well...

 

 

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, was unchanged at –0.12 in April. Thirty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 47 made negative contributions. Forty-six indicators improved from March to April, while 37 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 19 made negative contributions.

Charts: Bloomberg