Chicago PMI Bounce Is Dead, Crashes Back Near 6 Year Lows

Following Milwaukee ISM's plunge to 15-month lows this morning with a plunge in new orders (missing for 4 of last 5 months), Chicago PMI printed a disappointing 46.2 (against expectations of a slight rise to 53.0 from 52.3 last month) - lower than the lowest economist estimate. After last month's modest (dead-cat) bounce back from winter's collapse to 6 year lows, this re-collapse is hardly the kind of Q2-recovery-reinforcing data the mainstream wants. With the level now back at the same when Lehman hit, New Orders, Production, and Employment all contracted in May.

Milwaukee was ugly...

 

But Chicago PMI was uglier - as bad as it was when Lehman hit...

 

Can we get a better sell-side?

 

Chicago PMI breakdown...

  • Forecast range 51 - 55 from 45 economists surveyed
  • Prices Paid rose compared to last month
  • New Orders fell compared to last month
  • Employment fell compared to last month
  • Inventory fell compared to last month
  • Supplier Deliveries fell compared to last month
  • Production fell compared to last month
  • Order Backlogs fell compared to last month
  • Business activity has been positive for 9 months over the past year.
  • Number of Components Rising: 1

 

Charts: Bloomberg