Eurogroup Officially Threatens Greece With 5 Year Grexit "Time Out"

As we noted this morning, EU finance ministers have effectively given Greece 24 hours to accept the set of rather draconian conditions outlined in a “draft” term sheet leaked to the press earlier today.

As a reminder, here are the stipulations: 

  • fully comply with the medium-term primary surplus target of 3.5 percent of GDP by 2018, according to a yearly schedule to be agreed with the institutions;
  • carry out ambitious pension reforms and specific policies to fully compensate for the fiscal impact of the Constitutional Court ruling on the 2012 pension reform and to implement the zero deficit clause;
  • adopt more ambitious product market reforms with a clear timetable for implementation of all OECD toolkit I recommendations, including Sunday trade, sales periods, over-the-counter pharmaceutical products, pharmacy ownership, milk, bakeries. On the follow-up of the OECD toolkit II, manufacturing needs to be included in the prior action;
  • on energy markets, the privatization of the electricity transmission network operator (ADMIE) must proceed, unless replacement measures can be found that have equivalent effect, as agreed by the institutions;
  • on labor markets, undertake rigorous reviews of collective bargaining, industrial action and collective dismissals in line with the timetable and the approach suggested by the institutions. Any changes should be based on international and European best practices, and should not involve a return to past policy settings which are not compatible with the goals of promoting sustainable and inclusive growth;
  • fully implement the relevant provisions of the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union, in particular to make the Fiscal Council fully operational;
  • adopt the necessary steps to strengthen the financial sector, including decisive action on non-performing loans, transposition of BRRD and measures to strengthen governance of the HFSF and the banks;
  • develop a significantly scaled up privatization program with improved governance. A working group with the institutions shall provide proposals for better implementation mechanisms;
  • amend or compensate for legislation adopted during 2015 which have not been agreed with the institutions and run counter to the program commitments;
  • implement the key remaining elements from the December 2014 state of play of the fifth review of the second economic adjustment program."

And here is the above, paraphrased, courtsey of Politico:

Source: @politico

Of course going back to Greek lawmakers with a set of terms that's even more punitive than those which were not only rejected by the Greek people last Sunday, but also rejected on Friday by party hardliners, will be exceptionally painful for Tsipras and it seems far from certain that the PM will be able to rally support for this latest set of demands. 

But that's exactly what Tsipras will have to do if he wants to secure an ESM bailout (which is now estimated to cost as much as €86 billion, up €10 billion in just the last 24 hours), keep his country in the euro, and keep the Greek banking sector from collapsing as early as Tuesday, because as the following excerpt from the Eurogroup draft shows, Greece will be given a "swift" time-out from the EMU if Brussels doesn't get a complete, no questions asked surrender from Athens on Monday. 

Here's the new estimate of the ESM program cost:

And here is the "swift time-out":

Source: @BrunoBrussels

And for anyone confused by the constant barrage of conflicting headlines and feigned optimism, here's a breakdown of who's who at the table and where they stand on Grexit (incidentally, this also gives you an idea of just how divided Europe has truly become):