Stocks Get Second Thoughts About Greek Deal: Turn Red From China To Europe

One day after the Greek "pre-deal" was announced and the world breathed a sigh of relief, sending US stocks soaring and Greek halted stocks, well, tumbling (via ETFs and ADRs), things are oddly quiet and in fact quite red in Europe, with futures in the US modestly lower, following both China's first red close in several days (SHCOMP -1.2%), and a Europe which is hardly looking very euphoric at this moment: it is almost as if the algos finally got to read the fine print of the Greek deal after trading all day on just the headlines.

As Bloomberg's Richard Breslow summarizes, with so much economically important news coming tomorrow, equity markets opened today trading yesterday’s events. Stock markets from Japan to Australia gapped higher on their open getting in on the rallies in Europe and North America that followed the Greece news. Interestingly, China and India, open late enough to benefit from yesterday’s events, showed a lack of conviction today, mirroring E-Mini, down a bit in a tight range, and Euro Stoxx 50 futures that failed to keep an opening bid and have sagged since

Breslow notes, and we agree, that the most notable market so far today has been Italy, underperforming the rest of Europe with a .7% decline right from the get go. Peripheral bond yields are also underperforming core on the open and EURCHF flirted with 1.0400 after spiking above 1.0500 on the early Greek headlines.

Chinese equities had a bit of a roller coaster of a day with the Shanghai Composite opening down, rallying 1.6% after strong money supply figures only to sag all afternoon before a rally and swoon near the end left the index down 1.2% on the day.  Money market rates also increased, with the catalyst for the equity drop according to some was the PBoC injecting less liquidity. More companies have resumed trading, leaving still about one-quarter of mainland listed companies frozen. The market closed before it was announced that China is considering allowing another 1 trillion yuan ($161 billion) of local government debt swaps. Yet another policy to aid the economy. Tomorrow GDP and IP will be released.

Japanese equities opened strong and pretty much stayed that way, with both the Topix and Nikkei 225 closing up about 1.5%. Headlines about Greece dominated the coverage. Tomorrow the BOJ is expected to stay on hold but is likely to downgrade its economic assessment

European equities have sagged from the opening but so far are trading fairly quietly. The DAX remains above its 55-DMA (11,367), which it gapped above yesterday is the pivot level to watch . Italian shares which also rose yesterday have crossed  back below their 55-DMA (23,025), and that too is an important pivot to watch. How these two indices perform will be an important clue as to optimism within Europe. U.K. equities are pretty much flat and out performing the rest of Europe, as CPI and factory output prices were pretty benign and on expectation. Tomorrow unemployment will be released.

In FX, GBP (+107 pips) saw a fairly muted reaction to the in-line with expectation CPI data (Y/Y 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.0% Prey. 0.1%), but did strengthen significantly after BoE's Carney stated that a rate hike is moving closer, while ZEW Survey Expectations (29.7 vs. Exp. 29) failed to see a reaction in EUR, which trended higher from the European open. The USD index heads into the US session lower by around 0.2% weighed on by EUR/USD as the pair trades back above 1.1000. FX markets have seen weakness in commodity currencies including CAD, NOK and RUB as a consequence of lower oil prices due to the Iranian nuclear deal with INR and TRY notable stronger this morning, as the net importers of oil set to benefit from lower prices.Looking ahead, this afternoon sees US retail sales advance, BoE's Miles and ECB's Mersch.

In commodities, WTI (USD -1.01) and Brent Crude (USD-1.04) futures traded lower during the first half of the European trading session after it was announced that Iran have come to an agreement regarding their ongoing nuclear deal, meaning eventually sanctions will be listed, with Iran then able to supply more oil to global markets. However, the trade embargo is not to be lifted until countries are satisfied it has fulfilled its obligations and this will take many months, while several major investment banks have estimated it will be 6-12 months before production returns to 2012 levels of around 500kbpd. While the metals complex saw gold trade slightly lower overnight amid a dampening of safe haven demand, while copper traded flat to remain near yesterday's lows and Dalian iron ore rose by more than 1% in tandem with the recovery in steel rebar prices.

U.S. equity futures are down small and doing very little. Retail sales will be released later today and are expected to soften from last month’s strong upside surprise. Tomorrow will be about Chai Yellen before Congress

In summary: European shares remain lower with the autos and financial services sectors underperforming and food & beverage, health care outperforming. Iran reaches nuclear agreement. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras faces two days of parliamentary maneuvering in Athens to secure approval for bailout package. U.K. June inflation rate falls to zero matching median est. Carney says time for BOE rate increase is moving closer. German ZEW above estimates. China said to consider extra 1 trillion yuan debt-swap quota. Singapore 2Q GDP below estimates. The Italian and Spanish markets are the worst-performing larger bourses, the Swiss the best. The euro is stronger against the dollar. Greek 10yr bond yields rise; U.K. yields increase. Commodities decline, with WTI crude, Brent crude underperforming and soybeans outperforming. U.S. small business optimism, retail sales,  import price index, business inventories due later.

Market Wrap

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2093
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.3% to 395.2
  • US 10Yr yield down 1bps to 2.45%
  • German 10Yr yield up 1bps to 0.87%
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.7% to 143.4
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1154.3/oz
  • 3 out of 19 Stoxx 600 sectors rise; food & beverage, health care outperform, autos, financial services underperform
  • 22.2% of Stoxx 600 members gain, 75.3% decline
  • Eurostoxx 50 -0.5%, FTSE 100 -0.4%, CAC 40 -0.3%, DAX -0.6%, IBEX -0.6%, FTSEMIB -0.9%, SMI +0.1%
  • Asian stocks rise with the ASX outperforming and the Shanghai Composite underperforming; MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.7% to 143.4
  • Nikkei 225 up 1.5%, Hang Seng down 0.4%, Kospi down 0.1%, Shanghai Composite down 1.2%, ASX up 1.9%, Sensex down 0.3%
  • Euro up 0.33% to $1.1038
  • Dollar Index down 0.39% to 96.58
  • Italian 10Yr yield up 2bps to 2.13%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up 3bps to 2.14%
  • French 10Yr yield up 0bps to 1.26%
  • S&P GSCI Index down 1.1% to 409.2
  • Brent Futures down 1.8% to $56.8/bbl, WTI Futures down 1.9% to $51.2/bbl
  • LME 3m Copper down 0.9% to $5540.5/MT
  • LME 3m Nickel down 1.7% to $11550/MT
  • Wheat futures up 0.5% to 578.8 USd/bu

Bulletin Headlines from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • Iran's nuclear deal has weighed on energy with WTI residing near the USD 51 handle while commodity currencies have also seen weakness as a result of the deal.
  • European Equities trade in the red in a paring of yesterday's sharp gains as the initial positive sentiment regarding the provisional Greek deal dampens.
  • Looking ahead, this afternoon sees US retail sales advance, earnings from JP Morgan, Johnson & Johnson and Wells Fargo and comments from BoE's Miles and ECB's Mersch.
  • Treasuries gain as Greek PM Tsipras faces Syriza rebellion against austerity measures, Iran and six world powers reach nuclear accord to end sanctions.
  • Tsipras is set to submit a bill to parliament today containing sales-tax increases and pension cuts that go against his party’s pledges; with dozens of Syriza lawmakers saying they will rebel, Tsipras must rely on opposition support
  • Greece’s last-ditch bailout requires the country to sell EU50b of assets, an ambition it hasn’t come close to achieving under previous restructuring plans
  • Tsipras’s government is considering stepping down after Wednesday’s parliamentary vote, Bild Zeitung reports, without saying how it obtained the information
  • Germany’s Schaeuble proposed Greece could issue debt certificates to pay part of its domestic bills in coming weeks, Handelsblatt reports, citing people who took part in meeting of Eurogroup finance ministers
  • The nuclear deal with Iran, if approved by the U.S. Congress, promises to end a 12-year standoff that has crippled Iran’s economy and drawn threats of military action from the U.S. and Israel
  • Accord could eventually reshape global oil markets; Iran’s oil minister says country can increase exports by 500k bbl/day as soon as sanctions lifted, additional 500k/day in following six months
  • German investor confidence fell to 29.7, from 31.5 in June
  • Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said officials are edging closer to tightening policy as the economic recovery continues
  • China’s broadest measure of new credit increased the most since January after the government stepped in to boost provincial finances and the central bank accelerated monetary easing
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mixed; Greek 10Y yield +48bp to 12.496%. Asian stocks mixed, European stocks mostly lower, U.S. equity-index futures flat. Crude oil, gold and copper lower

US Event Calendar

  • 6:00am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, June, est. 98.5 (prior 98.3)
  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance, June., est. 0.3% (prior 1.2%)
  • Retail Sales Ex Auto, June, est. 0.5% (prior 1%)
  • Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, June, est. 0.4% (prior 0.7%)
  • Retail Sales Control Group, June, est. 0.3% (prior 0.7%)
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index, June, est. 0.1% (prior 1.3%)
  • Import Price Index, June, est. -9.8% (prior -9.6%)
  • 10:00am: Business Inventories, May, est. 0.3% (prior 0.4%)

We conclude with the overnight recap by DB's Jim Reid

So it seems the Europeans are going to be babysitting Greece for a long period to come and although we always felt a Greek deal was by the smallest margin the most likely option all the way through its fair to say that we didn't expect anything like the anguish it has taken to get us here or the heavy conditionality. The risk is that the economy will have seen enough damage that problems will arise much earlier in any new deal than had it been struck a few weeks or better still a few months ago. After speaking to George Saravelos last night my interpretation is that we've probably removed almost all of the risks over the remainder of the summer but that the autumn could bring fresh elections, ESM squabbling and a wider understanding of the recent damage done to the domestic economy.

Indeed it was 17 consecutive hours of talks which finally saw us arrive at agreement with a set of highly detailed milestones which Greece will now need to deliver upon to secure financing. The overall size of the program has been set at €82-86bn and IMF participation will stay. George notes that there are three major components to the new agreement. The first is the set of detailed milestones which will now need to be passed through Greek parliament, inclusive of VAT and pension reform which will then allow for the national parliamentary approval processes to take place. Different sets of legislation will then need to be delivered by Greece over the next few weeks which in turn will allow for disbursements to be made under the bridge financing arrangements and ESM negotiations to proceed. The second component is a framework of debt relief with the statement referencing the potential for additional official sector debt restructuring through longer debt maturities and interest holidays. This is set to be subject to Greece delivering on its commitments by the conclusion of the first review of the ESM program after September however. The third component is the agreement to the creation of a new privatisation fund in Greece, believed to be as much as €50bn. It’s expected that €12.5bn of this will be used for paying back ESM funds used for bank recap, €12.5bn for growth initiatives and €25bn for debt repayments. George thinks that given the experience of the last few years’ privatisation programme, these targets appear overly optimistic and serve as a signalling mechanism of the government’s commitment to privatisation more so than a meaningful source for bank recap, growth and debt reduction.

So looking at the timeline from now, a Wednesday deadline for the Greek parliament vote has been set. Assuming this passes, focus will be on the ECB and whether they adjust the ELA cap (there was no change in the cap yesterday). Attention will then turn to the European parliamentary approval process with Reuters suggesting the Bundestag is set to vote on Friday. This will allow for formal negotiations to start and discussions of bridge financing which will likely cover July and August obligations before more proposals will need to be passed in September allowing for a full ESM program.

For now though the focus will be on the Greek parliamentary vote. Tsipras’s coalition partners the Independent Greeks, as well as the Left Platform faction of Syriza have already voiced their objection and so it’s looking likely that Tsipras will need to rely on opposition votes. George ultimately believes that a minority government or government of national unity will be the most likely outcome with a major cabinet reshuffle.

So an obvious positive step forward but implementation risks remain high and in the meantime the Greek economy will face significant pressure on the back of fiscal tightening and a bank recap program. It’s also likely that we see a significant change in the political landscape in Greece which could remain a persistent source of risk as the year progresses.

Now let's try to move on with our lives (a little) as it’s a big week ahead of important US data, the first part of Yellen's testimony tomorrow, German/UK inflation data today and JP Morgan being the first big US bank to report also today. We'll come back to this at the end but let's look at the latest in China and Asia. Equity bourses are mixed in China although it’s been a fairly volatile session with the Shanghai Comp (-0.32%) reversing an earlier gain but the Shenzhen (+2.32%) remaining fairly upbeat. Meanwhile the latest aggregate financing data in the region showed a 1.86tn CNY print, well above the 1.4tn expected and to the highest level since January. Elsewhere there’s a generally positive start in markets in Asia with the Nikkei (+1.69%), ASX (+1.97%) and Kospi (+0.08%) all up. S&P 500 futures are currently unchanged while 10y Treasuries are 1.5bps lower at 2.439%.

Back to yesterday, there was an unsurprisingly better tone in markets on the whole. European equity markets rose although the move up in the Stoxx 600 (+1.97%) was actually smaller than the moves we saw on Thursday and Friday last week. The DAX (+1.49%), CAC (+1.94%), IBEX (+1.70%) and FTSE MIB (+1.00%) also moved higher while the better sentiment filtered over into the US session with the S&P 500 (+1.11%) and Dow (+1.22%) both ending firmer. There were gains also for credit markets as we saw Crossover close 17bps tighter (its tights for the session) and CDX IG move 2bps tighter. In the FX space the Euro initially jumped a fairly modest +0.5% as the agreement headlines broke, only to then sell off as the day wore on as focus quickly shifted to what this meant for Fed rate tightening expectations with the single currency eventually finishing -1.43% versus the Dollar at $1.100. There was a similar turnaround in sovereign bond markets with 10y Bunds initially jumping nearly 9bps in yield to hit 0.984%, only to then rally back and close 4.2bps lower at 0.852% at the close. 10y Treasuries were also choppy, but held on to the move higher in yields to close +5.7bps at 2.455%. A rally across the Greek curve helped support a tightening for Spain (-2.2bps), Italy (-2.4bps) and Portugal (-8.6bps) meanwhile.

Elsewhere it was reasonably quiet data wise with no releases in Europe and just a slightly higher than expected budget surplus for June in the US ($51.8bn vs. $50.5bn expected). Oil has continued to remain under pressure this morning meanwhile with WTI and Brent -0.84% and -0.52% respectively after diplomats are said to be preparing to present the final text of an expected deal with Iran following extended talks in a move that could see sanctions lifted on Iranian oil exports.

Onto today’s calendar now, as mentioned German and UK CPI data will be the main focus in the European session while RPI and PPI in the latter is also expected. There will also be a lot of attention on the German ZEW survey for July while Euro area industrial production is also due. Looking ahead to the US session, the June retail sales print is the top tier release in the US this afternoon. Our US colleagues expect headline sales to be unchanged on the back of slower auto sales. They do however expect retail control (the key input into GDP) to rise +0.5% mom which would mean the Q2 annualized growth rate would be nearly 5% and consistent with the view that total inflation adjusted consumer spending increased at 3% annualized last quarter, underpinning their estimate of a 2.5% annualized gain in Q2 real GDP. Elsewhere the NFIB small business optimism survey, import price index and business inventories are also expected. Earnings in the US are highlighted by JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Johnson & Johnson. It’s early days so far but of the 23 S&P 500 companies to have reported, 17 have cited a negative impact from a stronger dollar with 5 referring to higher labour costs. There has been just the 1 mention each of China and Greece. Shame that hasn't been the count in this report over the last few weeks.