US Recession Imminent - Durable Goods Drop For 5th Month, Core CapEx Collapses

Durable Goods new orders has now fallen 5 months in a row (after revisions) flashing a orangey/red recession warning.

 

After 2 weak months, Durable Goods bounced more than expected in June (+3.4% vs +3.2% exp) - though non-seasonally-adjusted dropped 3.1% MoM. But ex-Transports remain deeply in recession territory.

 

There was an  unexpected drop in Capital Goods Shipments non-defense Ex-Air which fell 0.1% (against expectations of a 0.6% rise), but mosty worrying is that Core CapEx collapsed 6.6% YoY - the second biggest decline since Lehman.

 

We are going to need much  more double-seasonal-adjustments to fix this data.

Charts: Bloomberg, ZH

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