Recession Watch - Durable Goods Growth Slows In July, Core Capex Orders Decline 6 Straight Months

Durable Goods Orders rose a better than expected 2.0% in July (but that is notably slower than the 4.1% revised growth in June) mostly driven by another surge in aircraft orders which however was nowhere near last year's bumper Boeing-driven surge, resulting in a 20% drop Y/Y in the headline data. A more realistic assessment came from the durables ex-transports series, which rose just 0.6%, better than the 0.3% expected, and down 2.5% from a year ago. This is the 6th consecutive drop in the annual data.

Non-defense Capital Goods growth remains stagnant as core capex orders have also now been in deceline 6 straight months year-over-year.  Finally, durable goods ex aircraft shipments also moderated, rising 0.6%, down from last month's upward revised 0.9%, and a paltry 0.5% up from a year ago.

The big Boeing order from last year washes through the NSA data:


But ex-Transports the data remains ugly YoY:


Non-defense Capital Goods remain stuck in a recessionary slump:


As Core Capex is now down 6 straight months YoY:


It may really be time for the economists, who still refuse to see any recessionary signals in the data, to invent some new climatic seasonal adjustments: at least it was record hot in July.

Charts: Bloomberg