"The Quantitative Easing Hangover Is Starting" - Dallas Fed Dead-Cat-Bounce Collapses To Post-2009 Recession Lows

With the biggest miss sicne April 2013, Dallas Fed's 2-month dead-cat-bounce has collapsed to -15.8 (against expectations of -4.0). This is practically the weakest level for the manufacturing index since 2009. The entire report is a disaster - Fisher's exit seems well timed? - as New Orders crash from +0.7 to -12.5 and Pries Paid craters from +0.1 to -8.0.Even worse, 14 of the 15 'hope' indicators declined and as one respondent warned "the quantitative easing hangover is starting." We have 3 simple words - "not unequivocally good."



Under the surface the responses were really ugly, with 14 out of 15 forward-looking indicators all hinting at contraction.


Here are the best survey responses:

  • "The quantitative easing hangover is starting."
  • Overall business is slowing.
  • " New orders have dropped to half of what they were last year. Capital project equipment continues to be sourced in China and Korea as the owners are chasing every dollar of savings possible. We had our first layoff in 15 years."
  • "Oil and gas prices, weather, world outlook and politics make for a poor forecast" 
  • "All our time is spent complying with increasing government regulations."
  • "The strong dollar has significantly impacted our export business. We have balanced this with domestic growth."
  • " We are deeply concerned about the markets and the effects they are having globally" 
  • " The interest in manufacturing has increased; however, the orders have not followed."
  • " The continued decline in the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price is expected to soften the demand for our basic fabricated products" 
  • " August will be our worst production and delivery month since March 2014."

Charts: Bloomberg