While the headline ADP print earlier today was modestly better than expected, at +200K, one of its components posted a surprising tumble: with 14,600 manufacturing jobs lost in August, this was the worst month for the US manufacturing sector since January 2010.
Where this data becomes more disturbing, and where it can be seen in full context, is when clustering the monthlies into full year buckets. It is here that the full impact of what is now clearly at least a manufacturing, if not yet service, recession can be witnessed.
As the chart below shows, according to ADP, for the first time this decade, the US hasn't created a single manufacturing job for the entire year. In fact, it has lost some 6,600 jobs.
But don't worry: we hear "economic recoveries" driven by hiring of minimum wage retailers, low-wage teachers, and of course, waiters and bartenders, are all the rage in this business cycle.