For a brief period, it almost seemed as if we are back to a normal market: bad news for the global economy (and there has been more than enough in the past 2 days out of China) were bad news for risk and stocks. And then, the clockwork USDJPY/XIV levitation started. Why? Who knows, ask the central banks participating in the CME's E-mini trading "incentivization" program, or the BOJ's USDJPY buying team, or the BIS' Benoit Gilson who made his market on gold just as it was about to take out the 200 DMA.
But one thing that nobody can ignore was the latest Gartman letter, in which the virtually daytrading comedian who two days ago turned bearish on oil after just days earlier turning "the most bullish he's ever been" and just after oil tumbled, said that he now retracts his call for an equity meltup made also just a few days prior.
All the markets that comprise our International Index have fallen, a very rare occurrence indeed. In fact, when this sort of thing happens following bullish moves it has almost always signaled the end of the bull-run. Couple this unanimity of price movement with the “reversals” noted above and we have a situation that concerns us greatly. Indeed it concerns us enough to exit our long positions entirely upon receipt of this commentary… positions that only a day or two ago seemed to us to be insulated from random noise, able to withstand a day or two of normal consolidation, but unable now to withstand the technical deterioration that has taken place as swiftly as it has. Certainly we do not like switching positions this quickly, for we appear to be flippant and foolhardy, but history tells us that we have no choice.
Adding "THE RUSSEL “REVERSES” AGAIN!: And We Paid Heed: We turned bullish of stocks when this index and others “reversed” to the upside following the Employment Situation Report two weeks ago, but the trend line weighed heavily and the Index “reversed” to the downside yesterday… to our chagrin."
Contract the above, with the following just from October 9:
The “Melt?up” Begins: The reversal to the upside that took place last Friday was the ignition point for the bull run, but now the fact that this trend line is being taken out from below shall simply add fuel to the already heated fire. Let the “Melt?Up” begin.
Bears have been duly warned.