It was precisely two months ago, on September 2nd, when we explained that as a result of China's recent currency devaluation, in order to mitigate the inevitable capital outflows that such an FX move would unleash, China was "scrambling to enforce capital controls" in order to prevent the exit of hot (and not so hot) money from China's economy.
We then said the following to explain why "this is great news for bitcoin":
Which is why we would not be surprised to see another push higher in the value of bitcoin: it was earlier this summer when the digital currency, which can bypass capital controls and national borders with the click of a button, surged on Grexit concerns and fears a Drachma return would crush the savings of an entire nation. Since then, BTC has dropped (in no small part as a result of the previously documented "forking" with Bitcoin XT), however if a few hundred million Chinese decide that the time has come to use bitcoin as the capital controls bypassing currency of choice, and decide to invest even a tiny fraction of the $22 trillion in Chinese deposits in bitcoin (whose total market cap at last check was just over $3 billion), sit back and watch as we witness the second coming of the bitcoin bubble, one which could make the previous all time highs in the digital currency, seems like a low print.
At the time of this forecast, the price of bitcoin was highlighted with the red arrow.
And while we were confident it was indeed Chinese capital "mobility" using the bitcoin channel that was the impetus behind the nearly 60% surge in the price of the digital currency in past two months to fresh 2015 highs, moments ago we got the closest thing to a confirmation when Bitcoin Magazine reported that "China is leading the charge, with the price trading anywhere from $10-$15 above the rates on U.S. and European exchanges."
Bitcoin Magazine further adds that "China is experiencing unprecedented amounts of growth. On October 30th, Jack C. Liu, the Head of International at OKCoin, said, in a tweet, that it had been the “busiest day of the year @OKCoinBTC as #Bitcoin trades to 2015 high of $344. No clawbacks on futures, no downtime. Great day for us & industry.”"
Two days later, he went on to reveal that OkCoin had seen incredible demand for accounts on the exchange:
Incredible new user growth for @OKCoinBTC USD and CNY. Two dozen plus handling KYC and customer service. We can onboard within 24-48 hours.— Jack C. Liu (@liujackc) November 2, 2015
And here is the validation that, just as predicted here two months ago, bitcoin has become the go-to asset class for millions of Chinese savers seeking to quietly and under the radar transfer funds from point A to point B, whatever that may be, in the process circumventing the recently expanded governmental capital controls:
While he didn’t provide any concrete numbers, he did comment last week on what was driving the adoption. “Some Chinese traders are expressing a view on the CNY exchange rate after the last devaluation and you have interest by mainland speculators to move to other assets after the stock market fallout,” he explained in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine.
Which again brings us back to our conclusion from two months ago:
... if a few hundred million Chinese decide that the time has come to use bitcoin as the capital controls bypassing currency of choice, and decide to invest even a tiny fraction of the $22 trillion in Chinese deposits in bitcoin (whose total market cap at last check was just over $3 billion), sit back and watch as we witness the second coming of the bitcoin bubble, one which could make the previous all time highs in the digital currency, seems like a low print.
As of this moment, the total value of bitcoin is up from the $3 billion two months ago to a little over $5 billion. That means the ratio of Chinese deposits (at around $22 trillion) to bitcoin, is down to a far more "conservative" 4,400x.
And now, again, imagine what could happen if these same Chinese depositors realize they have been lied about the non-performing loans "backing" their deposits and that instead of the official 1.5% bad debt ratio, the real number is really far greater, somewhere in the 20% ballpark as we will show shortly, suggesting major deposit impairments are no longer the stuff of Cypriot nightmares but just the thing hundreds of millions of Chinese depositors have to look forward to, and that they have just two possible choices to avoid said impairment: reallocating their savings into bitcoin or, of course, gold.