The Last Two Times Business Inventories Were This High Relative To Sales, The US Was In A Recession

Business Inventories jumped 0.3% MoM in September (notably more than the 0.0% change expected) and the highest since June led by a surge in Retailers restocking (+0.8% despite sales being unchanged). Retailers Sales are up 1.7% YoY but Retailers' Inventories are up 5.1% YoY.

With Sales unchanged (manufacturers -0.4%), the inventories-to-sales ratio surged to 1.38x - the highest since the financial crisis.



Like retail sales, the last 2 times inventories were this high relative to sales, The US was in recession.


Charts: Bloomberg