Despite plunges in new and pending home sales (current) and lumber prices (forward-looking), Homebuilder Sentiment surged in October to its highest in over 10 years. November appears to be ushering in some sense of reality check. Having revised up October to 65 (from 64), November saw sentiment drop to 62 - the first drop since May. The Southern and Midwest regions saw overall drops in sentiment as The West rose to new cycle highs. Both current and future sales expectations dropped notably but - despite all the blather about weather - prospective buyer traffic rose to its highest since October 2005!
What happens next? Well take a look at 2013 - when hope failed.